By Jonathan Lee
Spring training has just begun in Arizona and Florida marking the beginning of the baseball season. There are still plenty of roster moves to be made and jobs to be won, but it’s never too early to start projecting the season especially with the release of MLB team win totals.
Here are the recently released lines compared to AccuScore’s projections and the difference between the two numbers.
|
TEAM
|
WINS
|
LINE
|
DIFF
|
|
Philadelphia Phillies
|
98.1
|
95.5
|
2.6
|
|
Detroit Tigers
|
92.3
|
94.5
|
-2.2
|
|
San Francisco Giants
|
91.6
|
87.5
|
4.1
|
|
Tampa Bay Rays
|
90.2
|
87.5
|
2.7
|
|
New York Yankees
|
89.6
|
93.5
|
-3.9
|
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
89.6
|
87.5
|
2.1
|
|
Boston Red Sox
|
89.0
|
87.5
|
1.5
|
|
Atlanta Braves
|
88.9
|
86.5
|
2.4
|
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
88.3
|
86.5
|
1.8
|
|
Texas Rangers
|
87.9
|
94.5
|
-6.6
|
|
Los Angeles Angels
|
87.1
|
89.5
|
-2.5
|
|
Colorado Rockies
|
83.3
|
82.5
|
0.8
|
|
Milwaukee Brewers
|
80.0
|
82.5
|
-2.5
|
|
Arizona Diamondbacks
|
79.5
|
84.5
|
-5.0
|
|
Cleveland Indians
|
78.8
|
75.5
|
3.3
|
|
New York Mets
|
78.3
|
74.5
|
3.8
|
|
Chicago Cubs
|
77.5
|
73.5
|
4.0
|
|
Chicago White Sox
|
76.9
|
76.5
|
0.4
|
|
Toronto Blue Jays
|
76.7
|
81.0
|
-4.3
|
|
Los Angeles Dodgers
|
76.6
|
81.5
|
-4.9
|
|
Minnesota Twins
|
75.8
|
74.5
|
1.3
|
|
Kansas City Royals
|
75.8
|
78.5
|
-2.7
|
|
San Diego Padres
|
75.7
|
70.5
|
5.2
|
|
Oakland Athletics
|
75.5
|
72.5
|
3.0
|
|
Washington Nationals
|
75.5
|
80.5
|
-5.1
|
|
Miami Marlins
|
74.4
|
82.5
|
-8.2
|
|
Seattle Mariners
|
71.8
|
72.5
|
-0.7
|
|
Baltimore Orioles
|
69.9
|
70.5
|
-0.6
|
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
69.0
|
73.5
|
-4.5
|
|
Houston Astros
|
66.8
|
62.5
|
4.3
|
TOP PROJECTED OVERS
San Diego Padres +5.2
The Padres are projected for 75.7 wins, +5.2 over the line of 70.5. This looks like a decent bet given the state of the NL West. Arizona and San Francisco look like playoff contenders, but none of the West teams look overwhelming. Even last season the Padres won 71 games and now they have a consensus top 3 farm system. There should be help coming later on in the year, and every season the Padres find pitchers that are effective because of the advantage created by their ballpark.
Houston Astros +4.3
The Astros are projected as the worst team in baseball with just 66.8 wins, but that is still well ahead of the posted 62.5 total. This projection is not based on Houston’s talent level, but more on the fact that it is difficult to lose 100+ games in a season. Over the past four seasons an average of 1.5 teams have won 62 games or fewer. In 2007 however, every MLB team won at least 66 games. The Astros are likely the worst team in baseball, but it just as easily could be another team like Baltimore or Pittsburgh that posts the fewest wins.
San Francisco Giants+ 4.1
The Giants are the projected favorites in the NL West both by AccuScore projections and the bettors. This total is based on the strength of the pitching rotation fronted by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. That however is offset by a complete absence of offense. San Francisco allowed the second fewest runs in baseball last season, but also scored the second fewest runs as well. Buster Posey does return to the lineup, but overall the offense is still not good. Teams with great pitching perform very well in simulations so this over is not recommended.
TOP PROJECTED UNDERS
Miami Marlins -8.2
The Marlins made big splashes in the offseason acquiring Jose Reyes, Carlos Zambrano, Heath Bell, and Mark Buehrle among others. On paper Miami looks like a solid squad, but the NL East is still a strong division with Atlanta and Philadelphia loaded with pitching and Washington also being much improved. It’s just not likely for four teams in the same division to be .500 or better and AccuScore see Miami as one of the team left out of the party.
Texas Rangers -6.6
The Rangers are still considered the favorites in the AL West over the Angels, but the projected line is pretty high at 94.5 wins. The Rangers only covered that number by 1.5 wins last season, and it is questionable they can do it again. C.J Wilson is gone and replaced by Yu Darvish. Joe Nathan is the new closer and the rotation has to find spots for the converted Neftali Felix, Matt Harrison, and Alexi Ogando. First base also remains a real hole with Mitch Moreland being a real weakness in the lineup. There is also the constant Josh Hamilton question. This team is still super talented, but the line is relatively high and is a bet on everything continuing to go just right for the Texas franchise.
Washington Nationals -5.1
Just like with Miami, the NL East is a tough division and it will be difficult for three or more teams to reach .500. If Miami does in fact win like some expect than it would be at the expense of a division rival which would be Washington. Philadelphia and Atlanta are set up to win today, and unless neither of those teams win only 84-86 games it just becomes a numbers crunch. Washington still has many holes to fill up and down the lineup, and is talented but inexperienced in the rotation.
