Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Tuesday Night Baseball: Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals
The Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals are back in action Tuesday night with star pitchers Jake Arrieta (7-5 , 4.36 ERA) and Max Scherzer (8-5 , 2.09 ERA) set to take the mound. The Cubs held on to a 5-4 victory Monday night despite a late Nats rally that saw Washington score four runs in the ninth.
The line opened with the Nats listed at -158 on the money line and the total set at 8.
All of Tonight's Expert: baseball Picks (includes free full forecast for Cubs vs Nationals)
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Cy Young Clash
Scherzer (8-5) leads the Majors with a 2.09 ERA, entering Tuesday's matchup with 145 strikeouts - good for No. 2 in the Majors. The right-hander has notched double-digit strikeouts in his past six games.
Arrieta (7-5) has a 4.36 ERA this year, but is coming off his best start of the season, giving up just one run in seven innings in a win over the Marlins on Thursday. In his past three career starts vs the Nats, Arrieta has given up a total of five runs in 17 innings. Scherzer has a career 3.19 ERA vs. the Cubs.
Recent Trends vs AccuScore Simulation Data
Depending on when/where you get the total, there's quite a bit of value when comparing to AccuScore sim data.
The total the public's getting is either 8 or 7.5; AccuScore simulations, however, have that number set at 9, indicating a pick on the OVER.
The total combined score goes OVER 7.5 in nearly 60 percent of simulations. Considering most wagers on the total are listed at -110, which indicates about a 53 percent chance of happening, a 60 percent probability of something happening is fairly attractive. The only drawback? Looks like our data is going against some betting trends.
Relevant Betting Trends
• Chicago is 0-4 in Arrieta's past four road starts vs. teams with a winning record.
• Washington is 5-1 in Scherzer's past six starts on five days of rest.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of Scherzer's last seven starts.
Analyst's Pick
Chicago's 17-21 on the road - I'll go with Washington and the UNDER.
