AccuScore has expert picks that identify side value on the moneyline, run line and on the over/under for every game - World Series 2014 Game 6 Picks: Click Here
The World Series moved to Kansas City after Giants took a predicted win in game 5. They have now two game balls to clinch their 3rd baseball championship within last 5 years.
Like games 2 and 4, tonight’s game is predicted to be very close matchup between these teams. Based on our 10000 simulations Kansas City is a very slight favorite in the game. Their starting rookie pitcher Yordano Ventura has been very good during the regular seasons as well as during the post season. Last time he was startes in game 2, Royals won game 7-2 at Kauffman Stadium. That game was also predicted equally tight as today’s game 6.
Both starters have a good chance of having a quality start. Yordano Ventura has a 65% chance of a QS and Jake Peavy a 63% chance. If Yordano Ventura has a quality start the Royals has a 64% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.9 and he has a 28% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Royals win 57%.
If Jake Peavy has a quality start the Giants has a 62% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.2 and he has a 27% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Giants win 52%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation.
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As the current line for Giants win +130 offers probability around 43%, there is value for betting Giants as our probabilities are almost 50%. There has been few upsets during this series, and tonight’s game could be one more into this list.
The most productive batter for the Kansas City Royals is Eric Hosmer who averages 1.6 hits+walks+RBI based on our simulations. He has a 23% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Royals have a 68% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the San Francisco Giants is Buster Posey who averages 1.82 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 27% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Giants have a 67% chance of winning.
Like predicted after game 3, our numbers still show that there will be game 7 on Wednesday. And outcome hasn’t changed either; Giants will take World Series this year.