Bumgarner’s last push
AccuScore has expert picks that identify side value on the moneyline, run line and on the over/under for every game - World Series 2014 Picks: Click Here

After San Francisco Giants equalized World Series with a win in Game 4 last night, many experts agreed our analysis with their comments that game 7 will be deciding the outcome of these finals. Game 4 was predicted to be tight matchup and it would be the case with whole series.

However, based on our 10000 simulations Giants is a clear favorite in tonight’s game. Their starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner has been more than solid and we don’t have any doubts why he wouldn’t continue to deliver top performances also tonight.

Bumgarner is forecasted to have a better game than Royals' starter James Shields. Madison Bumgarner has a 66% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while James Shields has a 56% chance of a QS. If Madison Bumgarner has a quality start the Giants has a 70% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 6.2 and he has a 51% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Giants win 65%. In James Shields quality starts the Royals win 51%. He has a 38% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 51% of simulations.

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When both starters have “standard start”, our predicted 60% probability for a Giants win doesn’t give any significant expected value compared to current -153 line. As both teams are lining up their aces to the pitching mound, predicted total amount of runs is very low. Even though sportsbooks are offering 6.5 number for totals, there is value to play under.

Based on our simulations Buster Posey is the most productive batter for the San Francisco Giants. He averages 1.74 hits+walks+RBI and has a 27% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI. If he has a big game the Giants have a 71% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Kansas City Royals is Alex Gordon who averages 1.49 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 20% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Royals have a 62% chance of winning.

If yesterday’s game was must win for Giants, it is exactly same for tonight. Home field, their best starting pitcher and next game(s) in Kansas City are some of the qualitative reasons to back up our quantitative numbers from simulations.

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