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2015 MLB Futures: Odds and Expert Picks

One year ago, just before the start of the 2014 season we picked 3 teams based on our season simulations for season futures bets. All of those three were correct. Now, it is time to make another commitment and place your money aside for a half a year. On the table below, you can see the comparison between AccuScore’s 2015 season futures predictions and the Vegas lines:

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2015 MLB Futures - Chart

Just like last year, here are three picks that we want to highlight:

Detroit Over 84.5

Detroit Tigers took their division by one win in 2014. Back then the total amount of wins was 90. They have averaged 91 wins during past 4 seasons. Even though many experts think that Cleveland Indians have improved and will give handful to Tigers when competing to win AL Central, our simulations show quite a clear difference between these two teams. When we predict Detroit to be clearly over 84.5 wins, we predict Indians to be below their magic number, 83.5.

Colorado Over 71.5

Again, many experts think that Colorado will compete the last place in MLB. Even though their division is loaded with World Series winners in San Francisco and the lineup of stars in Los Angeles, our season simulation shows that Colorado has a chance to avoid the last position in their own division. It requires better play from young pitching to improve 6 wins from last year’s 66 wins, but our computer likes the depth and capacity of the potential breakout players of Rockies.

Philadelphia Under 68.5

In our opinion Philadelphia Phillies is 8 games behind the next worse team in MLB. There have been many articles about the poor roster and the bright future waiting only few years down the road for this team, so we are not going to repeat those. Last season’s 73 wins are a distant memory and this year Phillies will hit the lowest part on the curve when transitioning from World Series contender to the rebuilding mode.

It would be a tempting bet to go under for Yankees and Red Sox, but those big market teams have almost unlimited resources and chances to improve their rosters during the season, if the direction is completely wrong during the first half of the season. That is the main reason why we skip those teams and instead pick Detroit, Colorado and Philadelphia.

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