By Jonathan Lee
|
AMERICAN LEAGUE
|
WINS
|
LOSS
|
WIN%
|
MAKE PLAYOFFS
|
WIN
DIVISION
|
|
|
Texas Rangers
|
93.8
|
68.2
|
57.9%
|
83.7%
|
59.1%
|
|
|
Detroit Tigers
|
93.3
|
68.7
|
57.6%
|
89.5%
|
86.2%
|
|
|
New York Yankees
|
91.7
|
70.3
|
56.6%
|
75.5%
|
39.6%
|
|
|
Boston Red Sox
|
91.7
|
70.3
|
56.6%
|
75.0%
|
40.4%
|
|
|
Los Angeles Angels
|
90.8
|
71.2
|
56.1%
|
72.1%
|
38.6%
|
|
|
Tampa Bay Rays
|
86.8
|
75.2
|
53.6%
|
49.7%
|
16.8%
|
|
|
Toronto Blue Jays
|
79.1
|
82.9
|
48.8%
|
14.9%
|
3.1%
|
|
|
Chicago White Sox
|
77.4
|
84.6
|
47.8%
|
12.4%
|
5.8%
|
|
|
Cleveland Indians
|
77.2
|
84.8
|
47.7%
|
12.0%
|
5.9%
|
|
|
Oakland Athletics
|
76.8
|
85.2
|
47.4%
|
8.9%
|
2.2%
|
|
|
Kansas City Royals
|
73.4
|
88.6
|
45.3%
|
3.4%
|
1.5%
|
|
|
Minnesota Twins
|
71.0
|
91.0
|
43.8%
|
1.6%
|
0.7%
|
|
|
Seattle Mariners
|
67.6
|
94.5
|
41.7%
|
0.4%
|
0.1%
|
|
|
Baltimore Orioles
|
67.3
|
94.7
|
41.5%
|
0.4%
|
0.1%
|
|
|
|
|
Baseball made a change this season adding a second Wild Card pushing the number of playoff teams to five for each league. While most years that might aid competition this season it probably dampens it in the American League. AccuScore sees five clear favorites for the postseason with only one other true contender heading into the 2012 season.
Texas and Detroit are big favorites to win the AL West and AL Central respectively. Like most years, New York and Boston are again in a virtual tie for the East division. Both are still 75 percent likely to make the playoffs. The team in Anaheim is projected to be right in the middle of the race for a Wild Card winning 91 games in simulations and making the postseason 72 percent of the time. Tampa Bay is the only potential elite team at this moment being basically a coinflip to reach the postseason.
The preseason forecast shows the American League as a real six team race. Toronto has the misfortune of competing in the monstrous East, but there is talent. If a true darkhorse exists it might be the Blue Jays. Baltimore is in the same division dilemma and should get beat up all season. The Central might hold some intrigue if Detroit's defensive woes are worse than expected or injuries hit the lineup hard. Chicago and Cleveland are projected for approximately 77 wins. Kansas City is young and talented, but probably doesn't have enough pitching. Minnesota has had a track record of success with a small market model, but would need Mauer and Morneau to return to All-Star status. The Royals and Twins make the playoffs in just five percent of simulations combined. Seattle is probably one of the worst teams in baseball with serious holes in the lineup and pitching staff.
