As the MLB Opening Day is upon us and the season futures set for the regular season, the only thing remaining is to determine who’ll take the World Series 2018. You can find Accuscore’s 2018 MLB Win totals projections and picks here.
After simulating through the whole season and running multiple different playoff-scenarios, Accuscore has predicted the most likely league finalists and our experts have also picked one dark horse from each league.
Top Duos
Last season’s winner Houston Astros still remain the favorite this year according to bookmakers with odds of +435 | 5.35 | 18.69%. Not much has changed in Houston and in this case that can only mean good things. Taking back-to-back World Series is a difficult task and hasn’t happened in almost 20 years. The Astros rock the playoff simulations against any team and are the favorites of 20% probability to do the impossible and repeat.
The team to beat for Astros this season, according to the simulations is New York Yankees. Big money, big expectations and not much to show for it in this decade, but maybe this is the season. They certainly have the roster for it and they are the public’s big favorite – as always. The bookmakers have them the 3rd most likely winners at +650 | 7.50 | 13.33%. In Accuscore simulations the Yankees do surprisingly well in playoff-scenarios and win the World Series with ~14% probability.
In the National League the most likely participant in the World Series, according to Accuscore’s simulations, is Washington Nationals. Their playoff-record is not exactly glamorous, but how many times can the lightning strike the same place? With the quality they possess the regular season should be a slam-dunk and it’s highly likely they make a push for it this season. They have let us and many others down in the past, so maybe this season it’s time to make amends. Vegas offers odds of +900 | 10.00 | 10% for the Nationals to win, while Accuscore simulations have them slightly better at 11%.
Like the Giants in early 2010’s, Chicago Cubs have emerged as constant contenders with their excellent young core of players. They took the World Series two years back, but didn’t manage to repeat – and neither did the Giants back then. What they did do is win it three times in five years. The Cubs might have a chance for just that and they’re Accuscore’s no.1 to go to the World Series from NL. The bookmakers rate Dodgers higher, but in playoff-scenario simulations the Cubs have the upper hand. Vegas offers +750 | 8.5 | 11.76% for the Cubs to go all the way, but Accuscore simulations have them at 15%.
Dark Horses
It’s always a tricky business predicting the underdogs who’ll rise to the occasion, but with Accuscore simulation engine we can pick the cream of the crop. In the American League it’s the big shots who are likely to run out as the winners, but we’ve seen surprises before. In Accuscore simulations, Minnesota Twins make a case for themselves going very close to beating the favorites. They already made the playoffs last season and now it’s time to look further. Maybe not the safest of picks, valued +3000 | 31.00 | 3.23% but in the simulations the Twins win the World Series with ~5% probability.
In the NL, the two favorites and a couple of others are clear from the rest of the pack. From that pack though – and don’t laugh – the simulations indicate New York Mets to make some strides. They added a couple of pieces and the pitching squad should be top-notch. Whatever happens then, who knows, but in Accuscore’s playoff-scenarios the Mets put up a proper fight with many of the better ranked teams, like the Cardinals and Nationals. Valued at +2500 | 26.00 | 3.85% the bookmakers don’t have a lot of faith in the Mets. In Accuscore simulations, their chances are a bit higher at around 5%.
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Recap
Houston Astros 20%
Chicago Cubs 15%
New York Yankees 15%
Washington Nationals 11%
Minnesota Twins 5%
New York Mets 5%
For all the MLB picks, predictions and analysis, visit Accuscore.com
