• 2019 NBA Finals Pick: Warriors in 6 Over Raptors

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    2019 NBA Finals: Warriors Heavy Favorites Over Raptors

    This shouldn't come as a shocker: The Golden State Warriors are heavy favorites to beat the Toronto Raptors. AccuScore's 10,000 simulations on the series have the Warriors winning nearly 80% of the time, which means the current Vegas odds at Warriors to win at -280 offer notable value. The longer the series goes, the better the Raptors' odds of winning the series, with Game 7 providing Toronto its best chance of pulling the upset..



    The Warriors' best odds of winning the series come in Game 6 on their home court, with a five-game gentleman's sweep the next most likely outcome of the series. A true sweep has a nearly 18% chance, which points to how poorly this series could go for the Raptors even if Kevin Durant isn't around to start the series. The Warriors actually have a better chance of winning in four games than they have of winning in seven games. If the series goes to a decisive 7th game, the Raptors will have home court advantage and the mismatch turns into a slightly deformed coin flip. The Warriors technically still have the edge in a Game 7, but the last time the Warriors ended up in Game 7 of the Finals, things did not turn out well for the crew from Golden State.

    For the start of the series, at least, it should be fascinating to watch Stephen Curry lead the Warriors against Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors in Canada.

    AccuScore has expert picks for every game of the 2019 NBA Finals, against the spread, side value and on totals.
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  • NBA Finals 2018: Warriors HEAVY Favorites

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    2018 NBA Finals: Predictions

    A year ago, AccuScore said the Golden State Warriors would win in five games and that’s exactly what happened.

    With the NBA Finals tipping-off on Thursday, AccuScore again employed its simulation engine to figure out the chances for each team to win and calculate out what the most likely outcome would be. Well, the Golden State Warriors are an absurd 88.6% to win the series with a 21.6% chance of sweeping the Cavaliers.

    Yes, this is a mismatch and far more of a mismatch than the Warriors versus the Rockets was projected to be and eventually turned out to be. Even with LeBron James playing as an all-time great, the Warriors’ array of superstars is far too much for one man to carry a team across the finish line.

    The most likely outcome in the 2018 NBA Finals is a Cavaliers’ victory in five games, 24.4%, or six games, 26.8%. On the flip side, the Cavs’ best odds of a series win comes in seven games at 4.1%, meaning Cleveland winning the series would be a massive upset.

    Game 1 Expert Picks: Spreads/Totals/Player Props

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    Without LeBron
    To highlight the importance of LeBron James, our computer also ran the simulations without James to determine the impact a player of his caliber would have on the series. If LeBron wasn’t on the Cavaliers, the Warriors’ likelihood jumps to 95.4% with the most likely outcome a sweep at 32.3%. Without James, the Cavs’ chances of winning are in less than half.

    Without Steph Curry
    If James is playing and Stephen Curry was to sit out the series, Golden State is still the favorite because of Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, but the Warriors’ odds of winning drop dramatically to 68.7% with the series projected to extend to six or seven games. The Cavs are still not likely to win the series, but the prospects are far more realistic without Curry on the court draining three-pointers.

    Conclusion

    Of course, both LeBron and Steph are playing, so the Cavs are facing long odds. To put the reality of the discrepancy into focus, the Warriors are almost two times more likely to sweep the Cavaliers than Cleveland is to win the series—and that’s with LeBron healthy. More than 50% of simulations have the Warriors winning in either five or six games, with the series going six games edging out a repeat of 2017’s five-game “gentleman’s sweep.”

  • Warriors Over Rockets in Western Conference Finals

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    Western Conference Finals: Warriors Heavy Favorites

    The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors kick off the Western Conference Finals on Monday, and many people consider this series effectively the NBA championship. Well, AccuScore’s computer has a pretty strong stance on who will win this series with the Golden State Warriors winning 70.1% of AccuScore’s simulations.

    The Houston Rockets aren’t exactly hopeless, but they’re facing long odds.

    To put into perspective the gulf between the Warriors and the Rockets, the latter of whom finished the season with the best record in the NBA, the Warriors have a 39.1% chance of winning the series in either four or five games. As a reminder, the Rockets only have 29.9% chance to win the series in any manner.

    In fact, the longer the series goes, the better the chances for Houston to pull off the upset.

    AccuScore has spread, totals and side value picks for every game in both conference finals and in the NBA Finals: NBA Playoffs Picks

    The Rockets have a 14.2% chance of winning in 7 games versus the Warriors’ 13.5% chance to win if the series goes the distance. Effectively, the Rockets’ best chance to advance to the NBA Finals involves playing the Warriors seven times and banking on the home court advantage to carry them through. That said, the Warriors are most likely to win in 5 games at 26.3% with the next most likely outcome as the Dubs winning in six games at 17.4%.

    To open the series, the Rockets won 52.4% of Game 1 simulations, so Houston is not exactly expected to be a pushover. All the games in Houston expect to be close contests with the Warriors afforded opportunities to win games, while the contests in Oakland fall in an entirely different category. Beating the Warriors four times in seven games with Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson all healthy is going to take some doing.

    Ultimately, AccuScore calculates that the probability of Houston beating the Warriors four times in a series is about a 30-70 split, with Golden State the clear favorite.

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