Expect a close game with the Detroit Lions winning 44.0% of simulations, and the New England Patriots 56.0% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Detroit Lions commit fewer turnovers in 48.0% of simulations and they go on to win 70.0% when they take care of the ball. The New England Patriots wins 81.0% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Jamaal Williams is averaging 87.0 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (35.0% chance) then he helps his team win 73%. Damien Harris is averaging 90.0 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (43.0% chance) then he helps his team win 81%.
| Detroit Lions | | New England Patriots | | |
|---|
| All Games | 12-5-0 | All Games | 8-9-0 | |
| Road Games | 50-30-00 | Home Games | 3-5-0 | No Edge |
| When Underdog | 9-3-0 | When Favored | 6-2-0 | New England Patriots |
| Non-Division Opp | 6-5-0 | Non-Division Opp | 6-5-0 | |
| Opp .500+ Record | 6-2-0 | Opp Under .500 | 4-2-0 | New England Patriots |
| Detroit Lions | | New England Patriots | | |
|---|
| All Games | 11-6-0 | All Games | 10-8-0 | |
| Road Games | 50-40-00 | Home Games | 5-4-0 | No Edge |
| When Underdog | 11-6-0 | When Favored | 7-5-0 | |
| Non-Division Opp | 7-4-0 | Non-Division Opp | 7-4-0 | |
| Opp .500+ Record | 87-49-0 | Opp Under .500 | 63-51-0 | |
| Detroit Lions | | New England Patriots | | |
|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 9-8-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 8-8-1 | OVER |
| On Road | 3-5-0 | At Home | 3-4-1 | UNDER |
| All Totals Last Season | 7-9-0 | All Totals Last Season | 10-7-1 | OVER |
| On Road Last Season | 3-5-0 | At Home Last Season | 6-3-0 | OVER |
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