Written by AccuScore Staff
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2019-20 NBA Futures: Rockets Tipped to Crush Win Totals Odds
The 2019-20 season is finally here, so AccuScore simulated out the season 10,000 times to arrive at win totals and compare the computer's results with the oddsmakers in Vegas to see where the best value is available and understand what the computer is saying.
First of all, AccuScore is projecting the Houston Rockets to be the team with the highest wins with 59 because, well, they have two NBA MVPs--both point guards--on the same team, and Mike D'Antoni is a point guard heavy regular season specialist. With AccuScore projecting a 59-win season for the Rockets, James Harden and Russell Westbrook shatter Vegas' 53.5-win line. It's easy to understand why the computer likes the Rockets to win a lot of games this season.
Predictably, Milwaukee has the highest win total line with 57.5 wins. AccuScore has the Bucks as winning 56.5 games, which is hardly a departure from the Vegas odds. The Bucks are clearly the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, which was true last year.
The Lakers and Clippers are both slightly over the Vegas lines, with AccuScore putting the Clippers at 58 wins compared to Vegas' 54.5-win line. Meanwhile, the Lakers are projected to win 52.5 games, which puts them as third in the Western Conference, alongside Denver in AccuScore's eyes. Alternatively, Vegas has the Clippers and Utah Jazz with the highest totals line at 54.5 wins, followed by Houston at 53.5 wins and Denver at 52.5 wins. AccuScore has Denver at the exact wins as the line, but the computer appears to be taking a "show me" approach to Utah--giving the Jazz a 49-win season. That would still be good enough for sixth in the West and a date with the Lakers in the playoffs.
Golden State and Philadelphia are both 50-plus win teams for AccuScore, with Golden State well above the 47.5-win line and Philadelphia projected to win 52 games, which would still be second best in the East. Vegas has Philly as a 54.5-win team, which also is good for the second highest win totals line in the Eastern Conference.
Vegas thinks Charlotte and Cleveland will be the two worst teams in the league this season, while AccuScore contends those honors will go to Charlotte and New York. Clearly, the biggest difference between Vegas and AccuScore is Cleveland. Vegas putting the Cavs at 24.5 wins means this team has to be exceptionally bad for the majority of the season. While the Cavs are more than capable of being a 24-win team or worse, a truth is they have the ability to be a 25+ win team in a watered down Eastern Conference that just lost Kahwi Leonard.
New Orleans with Zion Williamson, Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram is projected to win 44 games and finish above .500, while Vegas is picking the Pelicans to finish under the 50-50 mark.
AccuScore has expert picks and analysis for every game of the 2019-20 NBA season, including picks against the spread and totals for every game: NBA Spread and Totals Picks
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