Written by Rohit Ghosh

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Rockets vs Spurs: Game 5

The Rockets-Spurs best-of-seven series heads back to San Antonio for Game 5 with the home team favored by 5.5 points and the total set at 214. With Rockets' backup center Nene done for the playoffs with a groin injury, watch for Houston to keep going with smaller lineups to push the tempo.

NBA Playoffs - Spurs vs Rockets Game 5
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Vegas vs AccuScore

We're always interested when our simulation data differs heavily from the numbers set in Vegas. Simulation data seems to agree with the spread, but it does have a total that's about six points lower than that in Vegas. The Spurs are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games at home, and it’s fair to say that they’re expected to continue that trend Tuesday night.

The total combined score stays below 214 in nearly 59 percent of simulations, with the data suggesting the line should be much lower at approximately 208. The UNDER is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

Recent trends, however, go against our simulation data.

• The total has gone OVER in five of Houston’s last seven games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in seven of San Antonio’s last eight games.

Sim data or recent trends? Choose your fate.

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What to Watch For

Keep an eye on the production from Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray. With Tony Parker out for the remainder of the playoffs, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of home-road splits the role players for the Spurs have. Mills, surprisingly, is only 8-of-21 in the last two games since Parker went out, but expect him to have a better game Tuesday come back to San Antonio. Mills and Murray are projected to finish with approximately 15 points combined in Game 5. Mills is projected to shoot 2-of-5 from beyond the arc.

Houston dominated Game 4 with 19 made three-point baskets. A 68-point second half reminded everyone just how dominant that offense can be. AccuScore’s sim data would tell anyone looking at prop bets for Houston’s total made three-pointers to take the UNDER. The Rockets make just 13-of-37 three-pointers in Game 5 simulations.

After averaging below 17 points per game in the first two games of this series, James Harden has put up 35.5 over the last two. He’s projected to finish with 31 points on 9-of-21 shooting.

NBA PREDICTIONS

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NBA

NBA2 Season Futures

Eastern SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
ATL
Boston Celtics 0 0 43.9 36.1 35.3% 83.9%
New York Knicks 0 0 42.9 37.1 30.4% 81.7%
Brooklyn Nets 0 0 39.3 40.7 16.4% 67.8%
Philadelphia 76ers 0 0 38.4 41.6 13.8% 64.9%
Toronto Raptors 0 0 32.9 47.1 4.2% 41.5%
CEN
Cleveland Cavaliers 0 0 47.7 32.3 43.3% 93.1%
Detroit Pistons 0 0 44.0 36.0 23.9% 84.6%
Chicago Bulls 0 0 42.6 37.4 20% 79.5%
Milwaukee Bucks 0 0 39.5 40.5 10.9% 69.1%
Indiana Pacers 0 0 32.1 47.9 1.9% 38.1%
SE
Atlanta Hawks 0 0 46.2 33.8 54.7% 90%
Charlotte Hornets 0 0 39.8 40.2 22.2% 70.4%
Miami Heat 0 0 35.6 44.4 9.7% 52.4%
Orlando Magic 0 0 34.8 45.2 9% 49.4%
Washington Wizards 0 0 31.7 48.3 4.5% 36.3%

Western SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
NW
Oklahoma City Thunder 0 0 47.9 32.1 38.9% 91.2%
Denver Nuggets 0 0 47.6 32.4 37.1% 90.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves 0 0 42.5 37.5 16.4% 75.3%
Portland Trail Blazers 0 0 35.9 44.1 4.1% 49.9%
Utah Jazz 0 0 35.3 44.7 3.4% 46.3%
PAC
Los Angeles Clippers 0 0 45.8 34.2 38.8% 86.6%
Los Angeles Lakers 0 0 43.2 36.8 25.1% 77.5%
Phoenix Suns 0 0 42.1 37.9 21.7% 74.6%
Golden State Warriors 0 0 37.0 43.0 8.1% 53.8%
Sacramento Kings 0 0 35.9 44.1 6.4% 48.7%
SW
Houston Rockets 0 0 46.0 34.0 47.1% 86.6%
Dallas Mavericks 0 0 41.3 38.7 24% 71.3%
San Antonio Spurs 0 0 38.2 41.8 13.6% 59.4%
Memphis Grizzlies 0 0 36.0 44.0 9.4% 49.7%
New Orleans Pelicans 0 0 33.9 46.1 6% 41%

Eastern, ATL

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, ATL

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Eastern, CEN

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, CEN

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Eastern, SE

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, SE

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, NW

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, NW

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, PAC

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, PAC

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, SW

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, SW

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF