Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Brooklyn Nets vs. Toronto Raptors: Game 3
After evening the series up at one game apiece following the 100-95 game 2 victory, the Toronto Raptors head down to Brooklyn to face the Nets for game 3 in what should be a hostile atmosphere. The Toronto Sun recently ran a headline that read “Raptors vs Dinosaurs,” poking fun at the veterans the Nets have (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce). The first two games saw few large leads as both teams were able to make in-game adjustments to stay competitive. Toronto lost just 4 more games on the road than at home, proving the young roster is capable of playing well in unfriendly environments. According to Elias Stats Bureau, however, the Raptors have not won a road playoff game in 4,737 days. Will that streak end Friday night?
AccuScore has the Brooklyn Nets as slight 53.7 percent favorites to win game 3 of their best-of-seven series against the Toronto Raptors. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 95.4 – 94.9, with the Raptors having a 58.8 percent chance of covering the +5 spread. There is a 50.6 percent chance the total combined score stays under 190.5.
AccuScore has updated odds and star-rated picks against the spread and on Over/Unders for this game and every other NBA game on the NBA Expert Picks Page
Swing game: Game 3 winner in a 1-1 series wins that series 76.8 percent of the time.
Nets Betting Trends
• The Nets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The Nets are 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Nets’ last 9 games at home.
• The Nets are 3-4-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing the Raptors.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Nets’ last 6 games when playing the Raptors.
Raptors Betting Trends
• The Raptors are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
• The Raptors are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Raptors’ last 6 games on the road.
• The Raptors are 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing the Nets.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing the Nets.
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Projected Leaders
DeMar DeRozan: 21 points (42% FG), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 2 TOs
Kyle Lowry: 16 points (42% FG), 8 assists, 5 rebounds, 1 steal, 3 TOs
Joe Johnson: 15 points (43% FG), 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 TO
Deron Williams (44% FG): 13 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds
What to Watch For
Through two games, Joe Johnson is 15-26 shooting from the field. Letting Johnson score with this kind of efficiency is a recipe for disaster for Toronto. Paul Pierce can go cold the whole game, but still make shots that matter in the fourth quarter. Rather than focus on limiting Pierce’s offense, Toronto needs to contain Johnson. Having DeRozan on Johnson not only tires DeRozan out for offense, but also gives Johnson the matchup he wants. Expect to see other guys cover Johnson, especially after the above-average job Landry Fields did in game 2.
The first half of both games in the series dictated who the winner would be. Brooklyn had a solid first half in game one, leading by as many as 12 in the first quarter. While Toronto did make a comeback in the second half, the energy spent to make that comeback often limits a strong finish. In game two, Toronto held Brooklyn to just 39 first half points, giving them some room for error in the second half.
X-Factor: Greivis Vasquez has surprisingly been the best reserve in the series thus far. In two games, he’s average 14.5 points per, and has turned the ball over just 3 times total.
