Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City: Pivotal Game 5
After defeating the Memphis Grizzlies 92-89 in game four, the Oklahoma City Thunder head home knowing their fate is in their own hands. When a series is tied two games apiece, the winners of game five go on to win the series more than 80 percent of the time. The good news for the Thunder is that they defeated the Grizzlies in Memphis (game four) despite both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook having off nights. Reggie Jackson stepped up with 32 points on 11-16 shooting. Marc Gasol led the way for Memphis with 23 points and 11 rebounds as the Grizzlies fell short in overtime. Will Memphis have enough grit to bounce back and steal a win on the road?
AccuScore has the Oklahoma City Thunder as solid 66.0 percent favorites to win game five of their best-of-seven series against the Memphis Grizzlies. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 96-92, with Memphis having a 54 percent chance of covering the +6.5 spread. The Thunder have more than twice the probability of the Grizzlies at a big win (10 points or more).
AccuScore has updated odds and star-rated picks against the spread and on Over/Unders for this game and every other NBA playoff game on the NBA Expert Picks Page
Memphis Grizzlies Betting Trends
• The Grizzlies are 5-9-2 ATS in their last 16 games.
• The Grizzlies are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
• The Grizzlies are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Grizzlies’ last 15 games on the road.
• The Grizzlies are are 2-2-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing the Thunder.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Trends
• The Thunder are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The Thunder are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games.
• The Thunder are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games at home.
• The Thunder are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Thunders’ last 6 games at home.
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Projected Leaders
Kevin Durant: 28 points (47% FG), 8 rebounds, 5 assists
Russell Westbrook: 21 points (44% FG), 7 assists, 5 rebounds
Zach Randolph: 19 points (41% FG), 11 rebounds (4 offensive rebounds)
Mike Conley: 15 points (42% FG), 7 assists, 3 rebounds
What to Watch For
In game four, Thunder guard Reggie Jackson outscored Memphis 13-9 in the final minute of regulation and overtime to finish with career-high 32 points. There is no excuse for the Grizzlies to lose a game in which Durant (15 points on 5-21 shooting) and Westbrook (15 points on 6-24 shooting) were both highly inefficient. While a game like the one Jackson had won’t come very often, keep in mind he did that on the road. The confidence he has in himself is off the charts following that performance - there are much tougher situations than coming back to your home crowd for the following game.
Per NBA.com, Kevin Durant is a +12 when Tony Allen is off the floor, and a -10 when he’s on the floor. The Tony Allen effect is definitely a real thing and the Thunder need Durant to get back to his regular season form. What’s more unfathomable is that Allen is averaging 9 rebounds per game this series, more than Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Allen’s activity is the number one reason the Grizzlies have matched up so well against the Thunder. He is projected to finish game five with 10 points, 4 rebounds and 2 steals.
