Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies: 7-Seed On the Line

With identical 49-32 records heading into Wednesday night’s matchup, both the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies have something to play for in the final game of the regular season. The winner gets the No. 7 seed and a chance to avoid the consistently-dominant San Antonio Spurs in the first round. A Dallas win would also secure the first season sweep of Memphis in six years. A home victory to finish out the season will give the Grizzlies 14 straight home victories heading into the playoffs.

AccuScore has the Grizzlies as slight 54.2 percent favorites to win Wednesday night’s matchup with the Mavericks. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 97.0 - 96.8. Dallas has a 56.2 percent chance of covering the +3.5 spread.



Betting Trends

• The Mavs are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last 9 games.
• The Mavs are 5-1 straight up (SU) in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Mavs’ last 5 games.
• The Mavs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
• The Grizzlies are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Grizzlies last 18 games.
• The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

Projected Leaders

Dirk Nowitzki: 20 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block
Monta Ellis: 18 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 steal, 4 TOs
Zach Randolph: 16 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists
Mike Conley: 15 points, 6 assists, 2 steals

What to Watch For

Despite there being a seeding battle within tonight’s matchup, both sides may choose health over a potential victory by limiting the minutes of the star players. Nowitzki tweaked his left ankle in last Saturday’s win over Phoenix, and Conley pulled a hamstring in Monday’s victory. While both are projected to play, it wouldn’t be a surprise if both erred on the side of caution and played limited minutes.

One reason Memphis scares most playoff opponents is their ability to slow down the pace and more importantly, take care of the ball. Memphis is No. 7 in the league in opponents steals per game and No. 10 in the league in opponents steals per possession. Dallas is one of the best in the league in playing the passing lanes, averaging nearly 9 steals per game (No. 6 in the league), but averaged closer to 6 in the simulations. As long as Memphis can keep the pace at their level, which shouldn’t be a problem at home, Dallas will struggle to get enough scoring opportunities.

Dallas is No. 23 in the league in free throws attempted per field goal attempted (FTA/FGA). Memphis is No. 8 in the league in opponent FTA per FGA. This is one of those matchups in which Dallas cannot rely on their outside shooting to stay competitive. Their nature isn’t to attack the basket often, but settling for jumpers will play into the Grizzlies’ game plan.

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