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Written by Rohit Ghosh
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2017 Eastern Conference Finals: Cavs vs Celtics - Game 1

The Eastern Conference Finals are set to tip off Wednesday night in Boston, with the No. 2 seed Cleveland Cavaliers hitting the road to match up with the Celtics. Let's be honest - very few expect the Celtics to win this series.

Game 1, though? There's some value there.

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Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulations

The Celtics are home underdogs, listed at anywhere from +165 to +175 on the money line, indicating they have about a 37 percent chance to win the game. The Cavaliers are 4-point favorites, with the total set at 219.5.

We're always interested when AccuScore sim data is on the different side of a money line pick when compared to Vegas odds. AccuScore sim data actually has the Celtics winning Game 1. Sims would have had Boston listed at either -120 or -125, suggesting a whole lot of value on the +165 listed currently.

With that in mind, the Celtics covering a 4-point spread if a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Boston covers the spread in 63 percent of simulations.

What to Watch For

Whether it's the rust variable or home court advantage, sim data expects the Celtics to take care of the ball better than the Cavaliers. Keep an eye on how successfully guys like Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart get in the passing lanes. Celtics average more than 3 fewer turnovers than Cavs in sims.

Boston is No. 2 in the league in NBA team opponent three point percentage. If Boston expects to stay competitive in this game and the entire series, defending the three-point line is going to be key. The Cavaliers shot 61-of-131 (46.5%) in four games vs the Raptors. They're projected to finish with no more than 12 three's made on 37 percent shooting.

If the Cavaliers have one glaring weakness, it's their transition defense. This ties back into the Celtics forcing turnovers, but getting buckets in transition would be the best way to get any sort of an advantage against a more talented and bigger roster.

NBA Playoffs NBA picks Boston Celtics Cleveland Cavaliers Eastern Conference Finals

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NBA

NBA

NBA - Top Free Betting Trends
TREND RECORD UNITS
INTER-CONF GAME SV (Season) 186-269, 40.9% 2366
NBA: 2 STAR SV Past 7 Days 1-0, 100% 245

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File Name Sile Size Creation Date
NBA_ARCHIV
E.xls		 5.95 MB 08.16.22

NBA2 Season Futures

Eastern SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
ATL
Boston Celtics 0 0 43.9 36.1 35.3% 83.9%
New York Knicks 0 0 42.9 37.1 30.4% 81.7%
Brooklyn Nets 0 0 39.3 40.7 16.4% 67.8%
Philadelphia 76ers 0 0 38.4 41.6 13.8% 64.9%
Toronto Raptors 0 0 32.9 47.1 4.2% 41.5%
CEN
Cleveland Cavaliers 0 0 47.7 32.3 43.3% 93.1%
Detroit Pistons 0 0 44.0 36.0 23.9% 84.6%
Chicago Bulls 0 0 42.6 37.4 20% 79.5%
Milwaukee Bucks 0 0 39.5 40.5 10.9% 69.1%
Indiana Pacers 0 0 32.1 47.9 1.9% 38.1%
SE
Atlanta Hawks 0 0 46.2 33.8 54.7% 90%
Charlotte Hornets 0 0 39.8 40.2 22.2% 70.4%
Miami Heat 0 0 35.6 44.4 9.7% 52.4%
Orlando Magic 0 0 34.8 45.2 9% 49.4%
Washington Wizards 0 0 31.7 48.3 4.5% 36.3%

Western SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
NW
Oklahoma City Thunder 0 0 47.9 32.1 38.9% 91.2%
Denver Nuggets 0 0 47.6 32.4 37.1% 90.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves 0 0 42.5 37.5 16.4% 75.3%
Portland Trail Blazers 0 0 35.9 44.1 4.1% 49.9%
Utah Jazz 0 0 35.3 44.7 3.4% 46.3%
PAC
Los Angeles Clippers 0 0 45.8 34.2 38.8% 86.6%
Los Angeles Lakers 0 0 43.2 36.8 25.1% 77.5%
Phoenix Suns 0 0 42.1 37.9 21.7% 74.6%
Golden State Warriors 0 0 37.0 43.0 8.1% 53.8%
Sacramento Kings 0 0 35.9 44.1 6.4% 48.7%
SW
Houston Rockets 0 0 46.0 34.0 47.1% 86.6%
Dallas Mavericks 0 0 41.3 38.7 24% 71.3%
San Antonio Spurs 0 0 38.2 41.8 13.6% 59.4%
Memphis Grizzlies 0 0 36.0 44.0 9.4% 49.7%
New Orleans Pelicans 0 0 33.9 46.1 6% 41%

Eastern, ATL

SEASON-TO-DATE  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   |   FORECAST  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   

Eastern, ATL

POSTSEASON  ■  WIN DIV   ■  PLAYOFF

Eastern, CEN

SEASON-TO-DATE  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   |   FORECAST  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   

Eastern, CEN

POSTSEASON  ■  WIN DIV   ■  PLAYOFF

Eastern, SE

SEASON-TO-DATE  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   |   FORECAST  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   

Eastern, SE

POSTSEASON  ■  WIN DIV   ■  PLAYOFF

Western, NW

SEASON-TO-DATE  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   |   FORECAST  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   

Western, NW

POSTSEASON  ■  WIN DIV   ■  PLAYOFF

Western, PAC

SEASON-TO-DATE  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   |   FORECAST  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   

Western, PAC

POSTSEASON  ■  WIN DIV   ■  PLAYOFF

Western, SW

SEASON-TO-DATE  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   |   FORECAST  ■  WIN   ■  LOSS   

Western, SW

POSTSEASON  ■  WIN DIV   ■  PLAYOFF