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NBA Finals 2016: Warriors to Win in 5 or 7

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Note: AccuScore simulated every game in the NBA Finals 10,000 times based on team, matchup and player statistics to project out the 2016 NBA Finals

Twelve months after the Warriors beat the Cavaliers in the 2015 NBA Finals, LeBron James and Stephen Curry meet in the 2016 NBA Finals rematch that doesn’t feel like much of a rematch. The Cavs have Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love healthy and playing well under new coach Tyronn Lou. Even with the improvements, however, AccuScore’s computer gives the Warriors a 69.6% chance of winning the title.



Why is the computer not believing the hype surrounding the Cavs’ playoff run? Well, first of all, the Warriors have the home court advantage, and the Game 6 win in Oklahoma City further pointed to the Warriors’ ability to win on the road too. Also, the Cavs were handily beaten by the Warriors in Cleveland during the regular season.

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Of course, AccuScore picked both the Warriors and the Cavs to advance out of the Conference Finals. In fact, the computer picked the Warriors to win in 7 games, exactly. The computer had the Cavs winning in 5 games, which isn’t exactly a far cry from the 6 games Cleveland required to put down the Raptors.

That extra loss to the Raptors further illustrated that the Cavs may not be as great as they appeared storming through the Eastern Conference. If the Warriors don’t win in five games, which is the most likely outcome at 22.8%, the next most likely outcome is a Warriors victory in Game 7, which is 22.0% likely. The next third most likely outcome is the Warriors winning in Cleveland in six games for the second year in a row. The Cavs’ best hope is to win in six games because winning the series in Oakland doesn’t seem like a likely outcome for Cleveland.

Aggressive as it sounds, the AccuScore computer says ‘Warriors in 5’.

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