2013 NBA Finals: Miami Heat Vs. San Antonio Spurs
LeBron James and the Miami Heat steamrolled through the Indiana Pacers in Game 6 of their Eastern Conference series. Although the Heat have been inconsistent with the exception of LeBron, Miami is AccuScore’s pick to win.
AccuScore simulated the series 10,000 times to arrive at the following predictions:
Miami was most likely to win in six games with 33.2 percent of simulations ending with the Heat celebrating at home in Game 6. The second most likely scenario was the Spurs winning in five games, which happened 20.3 percent of the time.
The Miami Heat winning in seven games was nearly four times as likely as Miami winning in a clean sweep over San Antonio. That means this is not a one-sided series by any means. However, the Spurs were half as likely to sweep than the Heat were, so Miami is the clear favorite.
If the series goes seven games, Miami wins 68.2 percent of Game sevens. That means the Spurs would be serious underdogs in a Game 7 with only a 31.8 percent chance of wrapping up the series in South Florida on the deciding game. Considering what Miami just did to the Pacers, it's hard to deny Miami's ability to close out in a deciding game at home.
Long story short, home court advantage is a big deal in the NBA Finals.
Having LeBron James on the team also helps. The computer removed LeBron from the series and re-simulated the series. Almost immediately, the Spurs went on to win 80.4 percent of series. The computer agrees that LeBron is the most valuable player because removal of Dwayne Wade or Chris Bosh made the series a tossup, but Miami was still slightly favored as long as LeBron was contributing at a high level.
