The NBA old guard – San Antonio and Boston – officially gave way to the new guard in the NBA that will match Oklahoma City with Miami. The Thunder came back from a two game deficit to win four straight against the Spurs. The Heat had to come back from a 3-2 deficit themselves winning the final two games over the Celtics.
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AccuScore projections show Oklahoma City is the better team on paper with the Thunder winning more than two-thirds of simulations. There is a very low likelihood of either team pulling off a sweep at just 11 percent. The Finals features a 2-3-2 format meaning a sweep would require winning at least two road games for both teams. The home-road format also heavily impacts the series projections. The Thunder will have both Games 6 and 7 at home, and the two most likely individual scenarios are both OKC wins at home. The most likely Heat scenario is a win in 5 games because the middle 3 games are all at home.
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THUNDER - HEAT
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THUNDER
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HEAT
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Win Series in 4 Games
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7.8%
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3.2%
|
|
Win Series in 5 Games
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12.2%
|
11.6%
|
|
Win Series in 6 Games
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23.7%
|
9.4%
|
|
Win Series in 7 Games
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22.5%
|
9.6%
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Win Series
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66.2%
|
33.8%
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The Thunder are favored in Vegas but the posted price of -150 translates only to a 58.8 winning percentage. AccuScore has the Thunder as the heavier favorite meaning there is a 7.4 percentage point edge with OKC.
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SERIES
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LINE
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LINE%
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ACC%
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OKLAHOMA CITY
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-150
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58.8%
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66.2%
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MIAMI
|
138
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41.2%
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33.8%
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