THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS FORECASTING

for the weekend, but do not limit your attention to just those drivers. There are plenty of guys without championship hopes who still have a very good chance to spoil the show.

Hendrick Motorsports driver Jimmie Johnson ($8,800) has never won at Chicagoland Speedway, but leads everyone with a 116.6 Driver Rating over the past five starts, according to NASCAR’s Loop Data. Johnson has also led the most laps (251) while posting a solid 8.0 Average-Finish Position (AFP) with 96.6 percent of his laps turned inside the Top 15 during the span. Overall, he has seven Top 5s in 14 career starts while posting a 9.3 AFP, best among all drivers with at least three races under their belt at the track. His soft pricing at DraftKings, as well as NASCAR’s Fantasy Live ($23.50), makes him an attractive play across the board.

Right on J.J.’s heels is Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch ($10,500), a driver who has been fairly quiet by his standards lately. Despite 61 fastest laps and 256 laps led at Bristol, he ended up 39th due to an uncharacteristic wreck, and he followed with a rather dismal 19th in Michigan and 11th in Darlington. Last weekend he returned to the Top 10 at Richmond, a place he has dominated, but he was just ninth while posting just three fastest laps. Normally he is much better. At Chicago, he has a 115.4 Driver Rating over his past five starts, leading all drivers with 97.1 percent of his laps turned inside the Top 15. We’ll find out if anything is amiss if Rowdy struggles again.

Brad Keselowski has two wins in seven career starts at Chicagoland Speedway. Photo credit: nascarmedia.com

(DraftKings.com salaries in parentheses)

Penske Racing’s Brad Keselowski ($10,100) has won this race twice in seven starts, finishing in the Top 10 on five different occasions, so he is the one to watch for Fantasy purposes. Build around him as your No. 1 driver. In NASCAR’s Fantasy Live he is a bit expensive at $27.75, but you can also squeeze in Johnson at a bargain price. Teammate Joey Logano ($9,900) hasn’t quite figured out the nuances of the track yet. While he checks in 10th in Driver Rating over the past five, he has led just 33 laps with 67.9 percent of his laps inside the Top 15. He also has finished less than half starts (three of seven) inside the Top 10.

Jeff Gordon will not run in the No. 88 this weekend, as Alex Bowman ($7,900) stands in for the injured Dale Earnhardt Jr. (concussion). Bowman has managed finishes of 26th at New Hampshire and 30th at Michigan in place of Dale Jr. despite superior machinery, so there is no reason to believe he’ll be much better at Chicago. Avoid him despite a temptingly low price tag. Hendrick teammate Chase Elliott ($8,500) makes his first Sprint Cup Series start at Chicagoland Speedway. In four career Xfinity starts at the track he had a win, two Top 10s and 88 laps led while posting a 9.8 AFP, so there is no reason to believe he’ll struggle in his first attempt with the big boys.

JGR’s Matt Kenseth ($9,400), who might consider this his home track since he is from nearby Wisconsin, has won at the track in 15 career starts while finishing inside the Top 20 on 12 different occasions. He has an impressive 11.3 AFP, and over his past five starts he has a 104.6 Driver Rating to rank fourth among all drivers. Teammates Denny Hamlin ($9,700) and Carl Edwards ($9,200) haven’t been as consistent. Hamlin has a won in 10 Chicago tries, but just two Top 5s and a total of 10 laps led with a meager 17.1 AFP. Edwards is slightly better with a 15.1 AFP in 11 starts, but no wins and just four finishes inside the Top 10. Their numbers aren’t poor, but their Fantasy Points per DFS dollar spent will not make them good buys.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300) has a high price tag, but he isn’t among the Top 10 in Driver Rating at Chicagoland over the past five starts at the track. In fact he has never won or had a Top 5 in 10 tries, managing just two Top 10s. His 16.3 AFP isn’t terrible, but with a five-figure DFS salary ‘not bad’ is not good enough.

Ganassi Racing’s Kyle Larson ($9,600) is not only in the Chase, but he is a serious contender to come away with a championship the way he has been rolling lately. The No. 42 is on target, finishing first at Michigan, third at Darlington and second in Richmond, dominating on the track more than any other driver. Is he peaking too early? Well, DFS drivers do not care as much, and should enjoy the ride. He has at least 10 fastest laps in each of his past four races while leading an average of 33.7 laps over the past three starts.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s Tony Stewart ($8,100) makes his final ride at Chicagoland Speedway, as he looks for his fourth win in 15 starts at the track. He has a 10.4 AFP with eight Top 5s and 434 laps led, so this is a track he has made plenty of noise in the past. After a dust-up with former employee Ryan Newman ($7,600), who subsequently had his Chase hopes dashed as a result, will there be retribution? That factor makes Newman, and certainly Stewart, very risky Fantasy plays. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the No. 31 send a parting shot to the No. 14 on track if the opportunity presents itself.

SHR’s Kevin Harvick ($10,800) once again has the highest price tag on the board. He has two wins, eight Top 5s and a 11.7 AFP in 15 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see the No. 4 roll into Victory Lane. However, over the past five starts he has raced just 63.9 percent of his laps inside the Top 15 while leading 91 laps with a 12.8 AFP. At this price tag you might want to look for a bit more of a sure thing.

Austin Dillon ($8,300) is in the Chase, but he could be out before the Chase barely begins if he races like he has in the past at Chicagoland Speedway. Dillon has two Cup starts under his belt, finishing 16th and 43rd, and he has yet to lead a lap. However, he dominated this track on the Xfinity circuit, posting four Top 5s with 105 laps led in five starts while managing an outstanding 3.8 AFP. He knows how to race at this track and after his finest season as a Cup driver, you can also expect his best-ever finish this weekend.

Jamie McMurray ($7,800) also found his way into the Chase, and now he hopes to start off on the right foot. He has been rather ordinary in his career at Chicagoland Speedway, posting just one Top 5 and three Top 10s in 13 tries with a 20.9 AFP. Even as a No. 4 or 5 driver, given those results, he isn’t a very good sleeper pick. However, Roush Fenway Racing’s Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,600) is someone to watch out for this weekend. He has finishes of eighth, 17th and 18th in three career Cup starts, and his 14.3 AFP is 10th-best among all drivers with at least three starts at the track.

BK Racing’s David Ragan ($5,600) is another a low-priced option who could pop this weekend. He has two finishes of 21st over his past four starts, which isn’t bad at this salary level. He also has one Top 10 and four Top 20 finishes in nine starts at Chicago for a respectable 19.4 AFP which lands him in the middle of the pack. He is a tremendous value play given his previous results, and he has even led four laps.

Richard Petty Motorsports driver Aric Almirola ($6,000) isn’t in the Chase this season, but he is driving well lately. He has a pair of Top 20 finishes in the past four starts, including a steady 17th at Richmond last weekend with 10 fastest laps. He has a Top 10 with three Top 20s in four career starts, leading a total of six laps with a 20.3 AFP. Compared to Dillon, McMurray and a few others, Almirola is a fantastic bargain.

If you’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel and need a sub-$5K salary guy, Premium Motorsports driver Cole Whitt ($4,800) might be your guy. While his specialty is on the restrictor-plate tracks, he has shown well at Chicagoland before, at least on the Xfinity Series. He posted finishes of ninth and 14th in two starts at Chicagoland Speedway on the circuit for an impressive 11.5 AFP. So far in the Cup series he hasn’t had a lot of success, but this is a track he knows well.

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