The Tampa Bay Lightning are heavy 65.1 percent favorites over the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Lightning are favored by AccuScore simulations partly because they have a +2 edge in shots on goal and are projected for 29 shots on goal vs 27 shots for the Maple Leafs. The Lightning goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 89.5% compared to the Maple Leafs goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 87.4%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Joseph Woll 25, Andrei Vasilevskiy 24 SHOTS: Auston Matthews 4.4, Nikita Kucherov 3.7 GOALS: William Nylander 0.51, Brayden Point 0.55 PTS: Mitch Marner has a 64% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Nikita Kucherov has a 73% chance of 1+PTs
' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Toronto Maple Leafs
| Toronto Maple Leafs | RECORD | Tampa Bay Lightning | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|
| Record on the Road | 22-15, 59% 429 | Record at Home | 26-10, 72% 650 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| VS Tampa Bay Lightning | 3-0, 100% 262 | VS Toronto Maple Leafs | 0-3, 0% -300 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 17-16, 52% 133 | vs Team .500 or Better | 16-18, 47% -379 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Record As Road Underdog | 9-6, 60% 431 | Record As Home Favorite | 24-8, 75% 651 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| After 1 or More Days Off | 39-23, 63% -3419 | After 1 or More Days Off | 37-26, 59% -4149 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
PAST 30 DAYS
| Toronto Maple Leafs | RECORD | Tampa Bay Lightning | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|
| Record on the Road | 4-2, 67% 153 | Record at Home | 4-0, 100% 210 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| VS Tampa Bay Lightning | 0-0 No Games | VS Toronto Maple Leafs | 0-0 No Games | N/A |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 3-1, 75% 232 | vs Team .500 or Better | 3-5, 38% -289 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Record As Road Underdog | 2-1, 67% 116 | Record As Home Favorite | 4-0, 100% 210 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| After 1 or More Days Off | 7-4, 64% -475 | After 1 or More Days Off | 7-5, 58% -722 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Toronto Maple Leafs | RECORD | Tampa Bay Lightning | RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|
| OVER-UNDER ON ROAD | 23-14, 62% Over | OVER-UNDER AT HOME | 19-20, 49% Over | OVER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 4-2, 67% Over | HOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 4-5, 44% Over | OVER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 13-15, 46% Over | HOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 18-18, 50% Over | UNDER |
| Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home | 28-26, 52% OVER | Opp Averages >2.8 G on Road | 27-27, 50% OVER | OVER |
ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.
SIDE VALUE - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 20-17, 54% -195 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 22-14, 61% +101 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 4-2, 67% +194 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 3-1, 75% +70
MONEY LINE - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 21-16, 57% +58 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 24-12, 67% 282 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 3-3, 50% -35 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 4-0, 100% +210
OVER-UNDER RECORD - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 18-19, 49% -262 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 16-20, 44% -544 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 4-2, 67% + 164 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 0-4, 0% -400
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