April 05, 2026 4:25 AM EST

NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators 4/7/2026

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The Tampa Bay Lightning are solid 60 percent favorites over the Ottawa Senators. The Lightning are favored despite being projected for 25 shots on goal vs 28 shots for the Senators. The Lightning goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 92% compared to the Senators goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 89.2%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Andrei Vasilevskiy 26, Leevi Merilainen 22 SHOTS: Nikita Kucherov 3.7, Thomas Chabot 2.6 GOALS: Brandon Hagel 0.47, Shane Pinto 0.28 PTS: Nikita Kucherov has a 65% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Tim Stutzle has a 42% chance of 1+PTs

' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDOttawa SenatorsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road23-14, 62% 467Record at Home19-18, 51% -451Tampa Bay Lightning
VS Ottawa Senators1-1, 50% -37VS Tampa Bay Lightning1-1, 50% 30Ottawa Senators
vs Team .500 or Better29-18, 62% 330vs Team .500 or Better22-25, 47% -610Tampa Bay Lightning
Record as Road Favorite14-11, 56% -160Record as Home Underdog2-4, 33% -161Tampa Bay Lightning
After 1 or More Days Off41-21, 66% -4066After 1 or More Days Off31-33, 48% -4519Tampa Bay Lightning

PAST 30 DAYS

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDOttawa SenatorsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road4-2, 67% 43Record at Home5-3, 62% 16Tampa Bay Lightning
VS Ottawa Senators1-0, 100% 63VS Tampa Bay Lightning0-1, 0% -100Tampa Bay Lightning
vs Team .500 or Better6-4, 60% -25vs Team .500 or Better2-6, 25% -463Tampa Bay Lightning
Record as Road Favorite4-2, 67% 43Record as Home Underdog0-0 No GamesTampa Bay Lightning
After 1 or More Days Off9-4, 69% -934After 1 or More Days Off6-6, 50% -966Tampa Bay Lightning

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDOttawa SenatorsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD23-14, 62% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME23-16, 59% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-0, 100% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-4, 43% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON18-18, 50% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON14-11, 56% OverUNDER
Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home38-22, 63% OVEROpp Averages >2.8 G on Road31-27, 53% OVEROVER

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 23-14, 62% -421 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 16-21, 43% -467 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 2-4, 33% -294 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 2-6, 25% -371

MONEY LINE - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 25-12, 68% +800 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 21-16, 57% 218 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 5-1, 83% +249 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 5-3, 62% +82

OVER-UNDER RECORD - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 16-21, 43% -644 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 20-17, 54% + 120 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 0-6, 0% -600 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 5-3, 62% + 155

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