March 13, 2026 7:25 AM EST

NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres 3/14/2026

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The Buffalo Sabres are slight 52.2 percent favorites over the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Sabres are favored by AccuScore simulations partly because they have a +3 edge in shots on goal and are projected for 30 shots on goal vs 27 shots for the Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 89.1% compared to the Sabres goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 88%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Joseph Woll 27, UkkoPekka Luukkonen 24 SHOTS: Auston Matthews 3.7, Tage Thompson 4 GOALS: Matthew Knies 0.6, Tage Thompson 0.72 PTS: Auston Matthews has a 65% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Tage Thompson has a 58% chance of 1+PTs

' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Buffalo Sabres

Toronto Maple LeafsRECORDBuffalo SabresRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road11-20, 35% -736Record at Home21-12, 64% 649Buffalo Sabres
VS Buffalo Sabres1-2, 33% -139VS Toronto Maple Leafs2-1, 67% 122Buffalo Sabres
vs Team .500 or Better11-23, 32% -1189vs Team Under .50022-11, 67% 902Buffalo Sabres
Record As Road Underdog8-14, 36% -370Record As Home Favorite14-9, 61% 81Buffalo Sabres
After 1 or More Days Off24-31, 44% -3675After 1 or More Days Off33-23, 59% -2260Buffalo Sabres

PAST 30 DAYS

Toronto Maple LeafsRECORDBuffalo SabresRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road0-5, 0% -500Record at Home4-1, 80% 199Buffalo Sabres
VS Buffalo Sabres0-0 No GamesVS Toronto Maple Leafs0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better1-6, 14% -508vs Team Under .5005-0, 100% 525Buffalo Sabres
Record As Road Underdog0-5, 0% -500Record As Home Favorite3-1, 75% 93Buffalo Sabres
After 1 or More Days Off1-6, 14% -692After 1 or More Days Off6-1, 86% -575Buffalo Sabres

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Toronto Maple LeafsRECORDBuffalo SabresRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD22-9, 71% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME19-14, 58% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS4-1, 80% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS1-3, 25% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON13-15, 46% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON16-12, 57% OverUNDER
Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home35-16, 69% OVEROpp Averages >2.8 G on Road31-21, 60% OVEROVER

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 14-17, 45% -148 Buffalo Sabres Home Games: 21-12, 64% +955 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 0-5, 0% -500 Buffalo Sabres Home Games: 3-2, 60% +157

MONEY LINE - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 14-17, 45% -568 Buffalo Sabres Home Games: 21-11, 66% 595 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 1-4, 20% -341 Buffalo Sabres Home Games: 4-1, 80% +199

OVER-UNDER RECORD - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 14-17, 45% -426 Buffalo Sabres Home Games: 20-13, 61% + 520 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 2-3, 40% -118 Buffalo Sabres Home Games: 2-3, 40% -118

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