January 17, 2026 1:53 PM EST

NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars 1/18/2026

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The Tampa Bay Lightning are solid 55.4 percent favorites over the Dallas Stars. The Lightning are favored by AccuScore simulations partly because they have a +4 edge in shots on goal and are projected for 27 shots on goal vs 23 shots for the Stars. The Stars goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 88.7% compared to the Lightning goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 87.8%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Andrei Vasilevskiy 20, Jake Oettinger 24 SHOTS: Nikita Kucherov 3.6, Mikko Rantanen 3 GOALS: Brayden Point 0.56, Mikko Rantanen 0.47 PTS: Nikita Kucherov has a 68% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Mikko Rantanen has a 60% chance of 1+PTs

' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDDallas StarsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road17-7, 71% 794Record at Home12-9, 57% -133Tampa Bay Lightning
VS Dallas Stars1-0, 100% 99VS Tampa Bay Lightning0-1, 0% -100Tampa Bay Lightning
vs Team .500 or Better17-9, 65% 518vs Team .500 or Better11-10, 52% -190Tampa Bay Lightning
Record As Road Underdog8-2, 80% 635Record As Home Favorite11-9, 55% -225Tampa Bay Lightning
After 1 or More Days Off23-13, 64% -2250After 1 or More Days Off21-18, 54% -2728Tampa Bay Lightning

PAST 30 DAYS

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDDallas StarsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road7-0, 100% 537Record at Home1-3, 25% -237Tampa Bay Lightning
VS Dallas Stars0-0 No GamesVS Tampa Bay Lightning0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team Under .5006-1, 86% 347vs Team .500 or Better2-4, 33% -288Tampa Bay Lightning
Record As Road Underdog1-0, 100% 98Record As Home Favorite1-3, 25% -237Tampa Bay Lightning
After 1 or More Days Off8-1, 89% -500After 1 or More Days Off3-6, 33% -796Tampa Bay Lightning

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDDallas StarsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD14-10, 58% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME15-11, 58% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-1, 86% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-3, 67% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON18-18, 50% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON12-15, 44% OverOVER
Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home20-17, 54% OVEROpp Averages >2.8 G on Road22-16, 58% OVEROVER

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 17-7, 71% -196 Dallas Stars Home Games: 8-13, 38% -294 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 6-1, 86% -100 Dallas Stars Home Games: 3-1, 75% +450

MONEY LINE - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 17-7, 71% +719 Dallas Stars Home Games: 10-11, 48% +-484 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 7-0, 100% +537 Dallas Stars Home Games: 1-3, 25% -237

OVER-UNDER RECORD - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 12-12, 50% -108 Dallas Stars Home Games: 8-13, 38% -572 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 6-1, 86% + 446 Dallas Stars Home Games: 0-4, 0% -400

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