January 16, 2022 5:04 AM CST

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills 1/15/2022

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Expect a close game with the New England Patriots winning 49% of simulations, and the Buffalo Bills 51% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New England Patriots commit fewer turnovers in 66% of simulations and they go on to win 65% when they take care of the ball. The Buffalo Bills wins 82% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Damien Harris is averaging 63 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 64%. Josh Allen is averaging 254 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (37% chance) then he helps his team win 61%.

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

New England PatriotsATS RECORDBuffalo BillsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games10-7-0All Games8-8-1New England Patriots
Road Games5-3-0Home Games3-5-0New England Patriots
When Underdog3-2-0When Favored6-7-1New England Patriots
Division Opp3-3-0Division Opp3-2-1Buffalo Bills
Opp .500+ Record6-3-0Opp .500+ Record4-4-0New England Patriots

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

New England PatriotsATS RECORDBuffalo BillsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-8-0All Games9-7-1Buffalo Bills
Road Games5-3-0Home Games3-5-1New England Patriots
When Underdog0-0-0When Favored4-3-0No Edge
Division Opp3-3-0Division Opp3-3-0No Edge
Opp .500+ Record1-5-0Opp .500+ Record4-1-0Buffalo Bills

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New England PatriotsO-U-P RECORDBuffalo BillsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)9-7-1All Totals (O-U-P)8-9-0OVER
On Road3-4-1At Home3-6-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season7-10-0All Totals Last Season4-13-0UNDER
On Road Last Season3-5-0At Home Last Season2-6-0UNDER

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