Expect a close game with the New England Patriots winning 49% of simulations, and the Buffalo Bills 51% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New England Patriots commit fewer turnovers in 66% of simulations and they go on to win 65% when they take care of the ball. The Buffalo Bills wins 82% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Damien Harris is averaging 63 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 64%. Josh Allen is averaging 254 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (37% chance) then he helps his team win 61%.
'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| New England Patriots | ATS RECORD | Buffalo Bills | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|
| All Games | 10-7-0 | All Games | 8-8-1 | New England Patriots |
| Road Games | 5-3-0 | Home Games | 3-5-0 | New England Patriots |
| When Underdog | 3-2-0 | When Favored | 6-7-1 | New England Patriots |
| Division Opp | 3-3-0 | Division Opp | 3-2-1 | Buffalo Bills |
| Opp .500+ Record | 6-3-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 4-4-0 | New England Patriots |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.
| New England Patriots | ATS RECORD | Buffalo Bills | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|
| All Games | 9-8-0 | All Games | 9-7-1 | Buffalo Bills |
| Road Games | 5-3-0 | Home Games | 3-5-1 | New England Patriots |
| When Underdog | 0-0-0 | When Favored | 4-3-0 | No Edge |
| Division Opp | 3-3-0 | Division Opp | 3-3-0 | No Edge |
| Opp .500+ Record | 1-5-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 4-1-0 | Buffalo Bills |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| New England Patriots | O-U-P RECORD | Buffalo Bills | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 9-7-1 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 8-9-0 | OVER |
| On Road | 3-4-1 | At Home | 3-6-0 | UNDER |
| All Totals Last Season | 7-10-0 | All Totals Last Season | 4-13-0 | UNDER |
| On Road Last Season | 3-5-0 | At Home Last Season | 2-6-0 | UNDER |
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