August 20, 2026 10:18 AM EST

Texas State vs Texas 2026-09-05 14:30:00.0

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Texas is a heavy favorite winning 91.0% of simulations over Texas State. Arch Manning is averaging 373.0 passing yards and 3.6 TDs per simulation and Hollywood Smothers is projected for 171.0 rushing yards and a 0.0% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 9.0% of simulations where Texas State wins, Brad Jackson averages 2.01 TD passes vs 0.96 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.08 TDs to 1.5 interceptions. Torrance Burgess Jr. averages 120.0 rushing yards and 1.16 rushing TDs when Texas State wins and 104.0 yards and 0.64 TDs in losses. Texas has a 59.0% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 95.0% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is TEX -30.5 --- Over/Under line is 60.0

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Texas StateATS RECORDTexasATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games 0-0-0All Games 0-0-0No Edge
Road + Neutral Field 00-00-00Home Games 0-0-0 No Edge
When Underdog 0-0-0When Favored 0-0-0No Edge
Non-Conference Opp 0-0-0Non-Conference Opp 0-0-0No Edge
Opp No Games PlayedN/AOpp No Games PlayedN/ANo Edge

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Texas StateATS RECORDTexasATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games 4-6-0All Games 5-7-0No Edge
Road + Neutral Field 40-00-00Home Games 0-7-0Texas State
When Underdog 4-0-0When Favored 0-7-0Texas State
Non-Conference Opp 4-6-0Non-Conference Opp 4-7-0No Edge
Opp No Games PlayedN/AOpp No Games PlayedN/ANo Edge

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Texas StateO-U-P RECORDTexasO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 0-0-0All Totals (O-U-P) 0-0-0No Edge
On Road 0-0-0At Home 0-0-0No Edge
All Totals Last Season 0-0-0All Totals Last Season 0-0-0No Edge
On Road Last Season 0-0-0At Home Last Season 0-0-0No Edge

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