Texas State is a heavy favorite winning 78.0% of simulations over Troy. Nate Yarnell is averaging 296.0 passing yards and 2.3 TDs per simulation and Lincoln Pare is projected for 138.0 rushing yards and a 0.0% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 22.0% of simulations where Troy wins, Goose Crowder averages 2.12 TD passes vs 0.76 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.06 TDs to 1.1 interceptions. Jordan Lovett averages 71.0 rushing yards and 0.67 rushing TDs when Troy wins and 66.0 yards and 0.36 TDs in losses. Texas State has a 45.0% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 85.0% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is TXST -9.5 --- Over/Under line is 54.5
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| Troy | ATS RECORD | Texas State | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|
| All Games | 3-1-0 | All Games | 2-2-0 | No Edge |
| Road + Neutral Field | 20-00-00 | Home Games | 1-0-0 | No Edge |
| When Underdog | 3-1-0 | When Favored | 1-1-0 | No Edge |
| Conference Opp | 1-0-0 | Conference Opp | 0-1-0 | Troy |
| Opp .500+ Record | 1-1-0 | Opp .500+ Record | 0-0-0 | No Edge |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.
| Troy | ATS RECORD | Texas State | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|
| All Games | 6-6-0 | All Games | 6-6-0 | No Edge |
| Road + Neutral Field | 60-10-00 | Home Games | 1-6-0 | No Edge |
| When Underdog | 6-2-0 | When Favored | 2-6-0 | No Edge |
| Conference Opp | 4-3-0 | Conference Opp | 3-3-0 | No Edge |
| Opp .500+ Record | 3-4-0 | Opp Under .500 | 3-2-0 | No Edge |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Troy | O-U-P RECORD | Texas State | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 1-3-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 2-2-0 | UNDER |
| On Road | 0-2-0 | At Home | 1-0-0 | UNDER |
| All Totals Last Season | 8-3-0 | All Totals Last Season | 8-2-1 | OVER |
| On Road Last Season | 5-1-0 | At Home Last Season | 5-1-1 | OVER |
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