February 28, 2026 7:38 AM EST

NBA: Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat 2026-02-28 15:30:00.0

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The Miami Heat are slight 50.7 percent favorites over the Houston Rockets. The Rockets are shooting 47.2 percent from the field and the Heat are forecasted to shoot 46.8 percent. The rebounding battle is pretty even with the Rockets projected for 43.1 rebounds vs. 43.6 for the Heat. Turnovers are pretty even with the Rockets projected for 15.3 turnovers vs. 14.8 for the Heat. The Rockets are making 13.3 three pointers on 35.1 percent from three point range. The Heat are making 14.2 three pointers on 37.7 percent. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA---PTS: Kevin Durant 27.0, Bam Adebayo 23.7 ASSISTS: Alperen Sengun 5.8, Tyler Herro 5.2 REBOUNDS: Alperen Sengun 7.6, Bam Adebayo 9.2 SPORTS ODDS: Sportsbooks and handicappers have set the line at MIA 3.0 TOTAL 225.0. WIN-LOSS Houston Rockets 37-21 Miami Heat 31-29 ATS Houston Rockets 27-31 Sweat Barometer -1.0 Miami Heat 33-25 Sweat Barometer 2.3 OVER-UNDER Houston Rockets 25-33 Avg Over/Under Line -1.0 Miami Heat 30-29 Avg Over/Under Line 0.7 ACCUSCORE PICK RECORD - POINT SPREAD PICKS Houston Rockets 35-21 Miami Heat 28-27 OVER-UNDER PICKS Houston Rockets 28-30 Miami Heat 24-33

UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Heat

Houston RocketsATS RECORDMiami HeatATS RECORDATS EDGE
Record on the Road17-14, 55.0% 300Record at Home17-11, 61.0% 600Miami Heat
VS Miami Heat0-0 No GamesVS Houston Rockets0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better16-10, 62.0% 500vs Team .500 or Better10-21, 32.0% -1310Houston Rockets
Record as Road Favorite14-11, 56.0% 190Record as Home Underdog5-2, 71.0% 280Miami Heat
Playing Back-to-Back Days11-14, 44.0% -440Playing Back-to-Back Days20-9, 69.0% +1010Miami Heat

LAST SEASON: We advise focusing on these trends in the first month of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Heat

Houston RocketsATS RECORDMiami HeatATS RECORDATS EDGE
Record on the Road14-27, 34.0% -1300Record at Home23-20, 53.0% 300Miami Heat
VS Miami Heat0-2, 0.0% -220VS Houston Rockets2-0, 100.0% 200Miami Heat
vs Team .500 or Better20-32, 38.0% -1520vs Team .500 or Better20-31, 39.0% -1410Miami Heat
Record as Road Favorite9-2, 82.0% 680Record as Home Underdog0-12, 0.0% -1320Houston Rockets
After 1 or More Days Off37-41, 47.0% -810After 1 or More Days Off48-40, 55.0% +400Miami Heat

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Houston RocketsRECORDMiami HeatRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD16-15, 52.0% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME15-13, 54.0% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-3, 50.0% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-2, 60.0% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST YR21-19, 53.0% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST YR21-22, 49.0% OverOVER
vs Teams Averaging >100 PTS at Home23-26, 47.0% OVERvs Teams Averaging >100 PTS on Road28-25, 53.0%N/A

AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. The AccuScore Advisor provides Point Spread, Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NBA game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore's Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore's RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

POINT SPREAD (SEASON) - Houston Rockets Road Games: 17-12, 59.0% +380 Miami Heat Home Games: 10-15, 40.0% -650 POINT SPREAD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Houston Rockets Road Games: 2-3, 40.0% -130 Miami Heat Home Games: 2-3, 40.0% -130

OVER-UNDER RECORD (SEASON) - Houston Rockets Road Games: 18-13, 58.0% + 338 Miami Heat Home Games: 14-14, 50.0% -126 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Houston Rockets Road Games: 3-3, 50.0% -27 Miami Heat Home Games: 2-3, 40.0% -118

SIDE VALUE (SEASON) - Houston Rockets Road Games: 17-14, 55.0% +2067 Miami Heat Home Games: 9-19, 32.0% +-277 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Houston Rockets Road Games: 1-5, 17.0% -500 Miami Heat Home Games: 2-3, 40.0% +90

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