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2016 NBA Playoffs: Injury Impact Analysis – Stephen Curry vs Chris Paul

AccuScore played out each scenario 10,000 times in a controlled environment based on regular season and postseason team and player statistics to predict the impact of each player

The 2016 NBA Playoffs have been hit hard with injuries, and no two players have felt the burn more than Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors and Chris Paul of the Los Angeles Clippers. Curry hurt his knee and will be reevaluated in two weeks, while Paul broke his hand and will be reevaluated in four to six weeks.

For the purposes of this analysis, AccuScore matched up the Clippers and Warriors for a second-round seven-game series. For the Clippers, a quad injury to Blake Griffin removed the forward from the remainder of the playoffs, as well. In AccuScore's analysis, Griffin is not included in the simulations as AccuScore attempted to quantify the impact of Paul and Curry missing a potential second round matchup.

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Scenario 1



If both Paul and Curry were healthy, Golden State is a 66.2% favorite to win the series. Considering the season the Warriors had, this should not surprise anyone. Of course, this assumes Griffin is out, but even if he was healthy, the Warriors' odds of winning only drop down to 63.8%. All things considered, the Warriors would come in a strong favorites if both teams were fully healthy.

Scenario 2



For a short time, until Paul went down with injury, the Clippers appeared to set to face a Warriors' team without Curry in the second round. How important is Curry to Golden State's cause? Well, if Paul had been healthy and Curry had missed the entire seven-game series, the Clippers would have been 69.3% favorites to win the series, even without Griffin. With Griffin, that number jumps only slightly up over 70%.



Scenario 3



Instead, the most likely outcome is that both Curry and Paul would miss the second round series, which is based on the rather bold assumption that the Clippers can get past the Blazers without their two best players. Sorry, Rockets, you're not good enough to beat the Curry-less Warriors, which became obvious when you lost to the Curry-less Warriors on your home court.

Interestingly enough, the Warriors are 61.5% favorites to win the series when both Curry and Paul sit. If Griffin was healthy, the Warriors' edge is 57.3%, but the key to the Clippers is clearly CP3. His involvement is even more vital to the Clippers than Curry's involvement is to the Warriors.



Scenario 4



Even though it's not really possible, let's assume that Curry plays in all seven games, while Paul sits out all seven games of a second-round series: The Warriors win the series with 83.5% confidence. Of course, this again assumes that Griffin is out. If the Clippers' forward plays in this scenario, the Clippers would still lose 77.6% of the time. As stated previously, Paul is the key to the Clippers, not Griffin.

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