NBA playoffs continue


After few game 7 series the first round of the NBA playoffs has been completed. The biggest surprise was sweep by the New Orleans Pelicans over the Portland Trail Blazers. Portland that was top 3 seeded team in the Western Conference couldn’t give too much resistance to the Pelicans, especially in the last three games.


We predicted that Oklahoma City will win the tight series against Utah, but that end up vice versa. All other series outcomes were as predicted. Many of these first round series were predicted to be quite lopsided. Will there be similar one way series in the second round?


Eastern Conference


Toronto Raptors (1) - Cleveland Cavaliers (4)


Year ago Cleveland swept Toronto 4-0 in similar second round matchup. This time the probability for the similar result is just over 3%. The most probable outcome is Toronto’s win in six games, but game 7 is not out of the question either. Overall, the Raptors are 66% favorite in this series. If Cleveland will pull an upset, the most probable result is 4-3 for the Cavaliers.


Boston Celtics (2) - Philadelphia 76ers (3)


The Milwaukee Bucks made life for the Boston Celtics difficult in the first round series. The Philadelphia 76ers will do the same for the Boston that proceed to second round by winning all four home games against the Bucks. This time Philadelphia is a clear favorite and Boston without top stars won’t repeat the trip to the conference finals like year ago. Philadelphia’s win probability in this series is 70% and they will take it in six or even in five games.  


Western Conference


Houston Rockets (1) - Utah Jazz (5)


In the series that was predicted to be very tight, Utah upset Oklahoma City in six games during the first round. This time upset against top seeded Houston would be much more difficult. Houston already took game one and is 80% favorite to win this series. The most probable outcome in this series is Houston’s 4-2 victory. This would mean Houston’s return to the conference finals after two years absence.


Golden State Warriors (2) - New Orleans Pelicans (6)


Like Houston, also Golden State already took their first victory in this series. There is a high probability that it won’t be the last. Golden State is a whopping 93% favorite to win this series and that could take place already in four games as Stephen Curry is expected to be back in next game. However, the most probable outcome for this series is 4-2 with 27% probability while 4-0 is 26% probable result.


The Championship

The Golden State Warrior is a very clear favorite to win the championship. The top seeded Houston looks to be only team that can give any fight for the trophy. It is very interesting that combined win probability from the Eastern Conference is only under 25%.


There are not too much value to bet any of these winners. Toronto and Philadelphia could have some value, but they are still quite a long shots for the championship. Maybe the safest is to double your money with the Golden State Warriors, especially when Steph Curry returns.

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