The Boston Red Sox are 36-21 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Houston Astros who are 27-25 on the road this season. The Red Sox have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito is forecasted to have a better game than Astros starter Framber Valdez. Lucas Giolito has a 57% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Framber Valdez has a 49% chance of a QS. If Lucas Giolito has a quality start the Red Sox has a 74% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.1 and he has a 31% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Red Sox win 58%. In Framber Valdez quality starts the Astros win 65%. He has a 25% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 65% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Boston Red Sox is Alex Bregman who averaged 2.23 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 37% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Red Sox have a 74% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Houston Astros is Jose Altuve who averaged 2.1 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 35% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Astros have a 56% chance of winning.
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Boston Red Sox
| Houston Astros | RECORD | Boston Red Sox | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|
| Record on the Road | 27-25, 52% 1 | Record at Home | 36-21, 63% 751 | Boston Red Sox |
| VS Boston Red Sox | 0-2, 0% -200 | VS Houston Astros | 2-0, 100% 180 | Boston Red Sox |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 33-25, 57% 504 | vs Team .500 or Better | 28-30, 48% -230 | Houston Astros |
| Record as Road Favorite | 15-12, 56% -185 | Record as Home Underdog | 10-4, 71% 724 | Boston Red Sox |
| When Framber Valdez Starts | 14-6, 70% 491 | When Lucas Giolito Starts | 11-5, 69% 592 | Boston Red Sox |
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Boston Red Sox
| Houston Astros | RECORD | Boston Red Sox | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|
| Record on the Road | 7-4, 64% 449 | Record at Home | 11-1, 92% 680 | Boston Red Sox |
| VS Boston Red Sox | 0-2, 0% -200 | VS Houston Astros | 2-0, 100% 180 | Boston Red Sox |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 2-13, 13% -1120 | vs Team Under .500 | 17-4, 81% 905 | Boston Red Sox |
| Record as Road Favorite | 1-1, 50% -17 | Record as Home Underdog | 3-1, 75% 209 | Boston Red Sox |
| When Framber Valdez Starts | 3-1, 75% 184 | When Lucas Giolito Starts | 3-1, 75% 141 | Houston Astros |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Houston Astros | RECORD | Boston Red Sox | RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|
| OVER-UNDER ON ROAD | 22-25, 47% Over | OVER-UNDER AT HOME | 23-32, 42% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 5-5, 50% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 4-7, 36% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 29-48, 38% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 35-42, 45% Over | UNDER |
| OVER-UNDER IN Framber Valdez STARTS | 8-12, 40% Over | OVER-UNDER IN Lucas Giolito STARTS | 9-7, 56% Over | N/A |
ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.
SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Houston Astros Road Games: 22-30, 42% -942 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 30-27, 53% +212 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Houston Astros Road Games: 3-8, 27% -596 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 6-6, 50% -208
MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Houston Astros Road Games: 26-26, 50% -534 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 31-26, 54% -268 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Houston Astros Road Games: 3-8, 27% -596 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 7-5, 58% -80
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Houston Astros Road Games: 20-18, 53% + 20 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 26-21, 55% + 290 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Houston Astros Road Games: 5-2, 71% + 280 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 5-3, 62% + 170
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