July 09, 2025 10:00 AM EST

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres 7/9/2025

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The San Diego Padres are 27-15 at home this season and the Arizona Diamondbacks are 21-20 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Padres starter Dylan Cease is forecasted to have a better game than Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt. Dylan Cease has a 46% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Brandon Pfaadt has a 40% chance of a QS. If Dylan Cease has a quality start the Padres has a 73% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.5 and he has a 25% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Padres win 50%. In Brandon Pfaadt quality starts the Diamondbacks win 72%. He has a 33% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 72% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the San Diego Padres is Manny Machado who averaged 2.26 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 38% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Padres have a 62% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Arizona Diamondbacks is Ketel Marte who averaged 2.5 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 43% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Diamondbacks have a 62% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona DiamondbacksRECORDSan Diego PadresRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road21-20, 51% -17Record at Home27-15, 64% 408San Diego Padres
VS San Diego Padres2-1, 67% 31VS Arizona Diamondbacks1-2, 33% -88Arizona Diamondbacks
vs Team .500 or Better25-28, 47% -462vs Team Under .50032-11, 74% 1273San Diego Padres
Record As Road Underdog12-10, 55% 391Record As Home Favorite22-11, 67% 292Arizona Diamondbacks
When Brandon Pfaadt Starts9-10, 47% -161When Dylan Cease Starts8-8, 50% -231Arizona Diamondbacks

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: San Diego Padres

Arizona DiamondbacksRECORDSan Diego PadresRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road5-4, 56% -43Record at Home7-5, 58% 27San Diego Padres
VS San Diego Padres2-1, 67% 31VS Arizona Diamondbacks1-2, 33% -88Arizona Diamondbacks
vs Team Under .5009-7, 56% -59vs Team .500 or Better7-12, 37% -415Arizona Diamondbacks
Record As Road Underdog1-2, 33% -83Record As Home Favorite5-3, 62% 41San Diego Padres
When Brandon Pfaadt Starts1-5, 17% -405When Dylan Cease Starts2-2, 50% -46San Diego Padres

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Arizona DiamondbacksRECORDSan Diego PadresRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD21-18, 54% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME17-25, 40% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS4-3, 57% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS5-7, 42% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON44-34, 56% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON43-37, 54% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Brandon Pfaadt STARTS10-7, 59% OverOVER-UNDER IN Dylan Cease STARTS6-8, 43% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Arizona Diamondbacks Road Games: 22-19, 54% -306 San Diego Padres Home Games: 20-22, 48% -68 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Arizona Diamondbacks Road Games: 3-6, 33% -483 San Diego Padres Home Games: 9-3, 75% +565

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Arizona Diamondbacks Road Games: 23-18, 56% +36 San Diego Padres Home Games: 25-17, 60% -7 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Arizona Diamondbacks Road Games: 5-4, 56% -35 San Diego Padres Home Games: 7-5, 58% +12

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Arizona Diamondbacks Road Games: 15-18, 45% -480 San Diego Padres Home Games: 21-15, 58% + 450 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Arizona Diamondbacks Road Games: 3-2, 60% + 80 San Diego Padres Home Games: 6-5, 55% + 50

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