July 11, 2025 8:37 AM EST

Miami Marlins vs Baltimore Orioles 7/11/2025

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The Baltimore Orioles are 19-22 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Miami Marlins who are 20-21 on the road this season. The Orioles have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Orioles starter Dean Kremer is forecasted to have a better game than Marlins starter Edward Cabrera. Dean Kremer has a 54% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Edward Cabrera has a 43% chance of a QS. If Dean Kremer has a quality start the Orioles has a 75% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.1 and he has a 38% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Orioles win 61%. In Edward Cabrera quality starts the Marlins win 63%. He has a 21% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 63% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Baltimore Orioles is Gunnar Henderson who averaged 2.21 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 36% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Orioles have a 71% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Jesus Sanchez who averaged 1.95 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 30% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 61% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Marlins

Miami MarlinsRECORDBaltimore OriolesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road20-21, 49% 889Record at Home19-22, 46% -694Miami Marlins
VS Baltimore Orioles0-0 No GamesVS Miami Marlins0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team Under .50021-18, 54% 666vs Team Under .50020-25, 44% -844Miami Marlins
Record As Road Underdog19-19, 50% 1024Record As Home Favorite12-17, 41% -896Miami Marlins
When Edward Cabrera Starts8-6, 57% 398When Dean Kremer Starts8-9, 47% -183Miami Marlins

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Marlins

Miami MarlinsRECORDBaltimore OriolesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road9-1, 90% 1174Record at Home7-4, 64% 166Miami Marlins
VS Baltimore Orioles0-0 No GamesVS Miami Marlins0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better2-5, 29% -220vs Team Under .5007-2, 78% 576Baltimore Orioles
Record As Road Underdog9-1, 90% 1174Record As Home Favorite4-2, 67% 72Miami Marlins
When Edward Cabrera Starts3-2, 60% 207When Dean Kremer Starts3-2, 60% 106Miami Marlins

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Miami MarlinsRECORDBaltimore OriolesRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD23-18, 56% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME22-18, 55% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-4, 60% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-5, 55% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON31-47, 40% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON42-37, 53% OverOVER
OVER-UNDER IN Edward Cabrera STARTS6-8, 43% OverOVER-UNDER IN Dean Kremer STARTS6-10, 38% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 17-24, 41% +12 Baltimore Orioles Home Games: 25-16, 61% +920 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 4-6, 40% +148 Baltimore Orioles Home Games: 7-4, 64% +228

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 20-21, 49% -1031 Baltimore Orioles Home Games: 24-17, 59% +326 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 1-9, 10% -836 Baltimore Orioles Home Games: 9-2, 82% +487

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 19-15, 56% + 250 Baltimore Orioles Home Games: 17-20, 46% -500 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Miami Marlins Road Games: 3-4, 43% -140 Baltimore Orioles Home Games: 4-6, 40% -260

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