October 05, 2025 1:31 PM EST

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays 10/5/2025

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The New York Yankees are 44-37 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Toronto Blue Jays who are 54-27 at home. The Yankees have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Yankees starter Max Fried is forecasted to have a better game than Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage ®. Max Fried has a 49% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Trey Yesavage ® has a 29% chance of a QS. If Max Fried has a quality start the Yankees has a 81% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.5 and he has a 32% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Yankees win 66%. In Trey Yesavage ® quality starts the Blue Jays win 64%. He has a 22% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 64% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Toronto Blue Jays is George Springer who averaged 2.19 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 37% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Blue Jays have a 49% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the New York Yankees is Aaron Judge who averaged 2.89 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 51% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Yankees have a 72% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Toronto Blue Jays

New York YankeesRECORDToronto Blue JaysRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road44-37, 54% -673Record at Home54-27, 67% 1565Toronto Blue Jays
VS Toronto Blue Jays5-8, 38% -452VS New York Yankees8-5, 62% 411Toronto Blue Jays
vs Team .500 or Better46-45, 51% -1330vs Team .500 or Better49-41, 54% 754Toronto Blue Jays
Record as Road Favorite39-28, 58% -323Record as Home Underdog19-8, 70% 1198Toronto Blue Jays
When Max Fried Starts22-13, 63% -147When Trey Yesavage ® Starts35-24, 59% 1042Toronto Blue Jays

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: New York Yankees

New York YankeesRECORDToronto Blue JaysRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road7-3, 70% 147Record at Home9-3, 75% 242Toronto Blue Jays
VS Toronto Blue Jays2-1, 67% 31VS New York Yankees1-2, 33% -88New York Yankees
vs Team .500 or Better11-4, 73% 269vs Team .500 or Better6-6, 50% -158New York Yankees
Record as Road Favorite7-2, 78% 247Record as Home Underdog0-1, 0% -100New York Yankees
When Max Fried Starts4-1, 80% 106When Trey Yesavage ® Starts5-6, 45% -10New York Yankees

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New York YankeesRECORDToronto Blue JaysRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD39-37, 51% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME43-34, 56% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-7, 30% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS4-8, 33% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON45-40, 53% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON43-34, 56% OverOVER
OVER-UNDER IN Max Fried STARTS16-17, 48% OverOVER-UNDER IN Trey Yesavage ® STARTS30-27, 53% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - New York Yankees Road Games: 35-46, 43% -1509 Toronto Blue Jays Home Games: 43-38, 53% -79 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Yankees Road Games: 5-5, 50% -240 Toronto Blue Jays Home Games: 8-4, 67% +90

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - New York Yankees Road Games: 44-37, 54% -665 Toronto Blue Jays Home Games: 46-35, 57% -180 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Yankees Road Games: 8-2, 80% +311 Toronto Blue Jays Home Games: 9-3, 75% +242

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - New York Yankees Road Games: 32-26, 55% + 340 Toronto Blue Jays Home Games: 36-32, 53% + 80 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Yankees Road Games: 5-1, 83% + 390 Toronto Blue Jays Home Games: 6-3, 67% + 270

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