By Shahan Ahmed

On the 1st of May, 2011, Arsenal were in a bad way. The Gunners were out of the Champions League, FA Cup, Carling Cup, and clinging to third place in the Premier League. Manchester United came to the Emirates expecting to collect 3 points and wrap up the league. Entering that Sunday, Arsenal had only 1 league win in their previous 7 Premier League contests, and to make matters worse, Aaron Ramsay started in place of Cesc Fabregas due to injury.

What happened? Arsenal won 1-0, and Aaron Ramsay scored the only goal of the match.
Manchester United is a far superior squad to Arsenal at the moment (and probably will be all season). United are in better form, better rested, better equipped, and…well, just better. Then again, the Gunners were in a similar situation last season, and somehow, Arsenal saw out a 1-0 victory against the Red Devils. The massive difference between this weekend’s match and last May’s surprise result is that Sunday’s contest is not at the Emirates.

Arsenal returned from Italy in time to travel to Manchester, and Manchester United have not lost at Old Trafford since April 3, 2010 (2 seasons ago vs Chelsea). After the first 3 rounds of the Premier League, Arsene Wenger will likely have Arsenal sitting on 1 point. However, his job is safe because he managed Arsenal back into the Champions League group stages (and all the riches that come with it).

Danny Welbeck had a goal and an pretty assist last weekend: Highlights

Lineups and Team News:

Manchester United XI: David De Gea
Johnny Evans, Phil Jones, Patrice Evra, Chris Smalling
Anderson, Cleverly, Young, Nani
Rooney, Welbeck

There’s no reason Sir Alex Ferguson wouldn’t start the same 11 that faced Spurs. The squad that faced Spurs last weekend featured 9 changes from the team that took on Barcelona in last season’s Champions League final, but the new-look United comfortably won 3-0 and looked even stronger in the 2nd half. Even with Javier Hernandez having recovered from a concussion, the Mexican will likely have to wait until after the international break to make his first start of the season. Danny Welbeck’s confidence grew after he scored United’s opener, and the 20 year-old’s play troubled the Spurs defense throughout.

Arsenal XI: Wojciech Szczesny
Bacary Sagna, Johan Djourou, Thomas Vermaelen, Carl Jenkinson
Henri Lansbury, Tomas Rosicky, Theo Walcott, Aaron Ramsey, Andrei Arshavin
Robin Van Persie

Arsenal qualified for the Champions League group stages with an emphatic win in Italy against Udinese. However, Gervinho, Alex Song, and Emmanuel Frimpong, who all started against Udinese, are suspended for the trip to Old Trafford on the weekend. Tomas Rosicky came on as a 2nd half substitute during the midweek, and the Czech international will look to build on his strong preseason form. With Samir Nasri’s move to Manchester City completed, 20 year-old Henri Lansbury is tipped to make his first Premier League start. Laurent Koscielny’s back issues leave him in doubt, but Johan Djourou was fit enough to play 90 minutes against Udinese, and the Gunners’ defense has been in good standing early in the season. Vermaelen and Szczesny, in particular, have been two of the top performers across the league after 2 rounds of the Barclay's Premier League.



Sir Alex Ferguson faces a real selection dilemma: Hernandez or Welbeck?

Welbeck or Hernandez? That's a tough one...

We employed AccuScore’s Super Computer to study the effect Chicharito Hernandez would have on this match in a purely statistical environment.

First, AccuScore performed 10,000 simulations with the lineups described above (Welbeck and Rooney starting). The computer, which is mainly using last season’s team and individual statistics at this point, projected Robin Van Persie to be the most likely scorer with the Dutch forward scoring in nearly 52% of simulations. However, the next 4 most likely scorers were all United players: Rooney (44%); Welbeck (29%); Nani (28%); and Young (25%).

Then, AccuScore performed 10,000 simulations with Hernandez replacing Welbeck in the United frontline. Robin Van Persie (51%) was still the most likely scorer in the contest, and Wayne Rooney (44%) was still the most likely scorer for United, but Chicharito was close behind his teammate with a 42% probability of scoring, significantly higher than Welbeck’s 29%. Nani and Ashley Young were still the next most likely players to score in the contest.

Although United were clearly the better side in both sets of simulations, Hernandez increased Manchester United’s probability of scoring, and he increased their probability of winning. With Welbeck in place of Hernandez, United won 51% of simulations and averaged 2.05 goals per match. With Hernandez starting, United won 56% of simulations and averaged 2.30 goals per match. Before you rubbish these results, please keep in mind: these results are largely based on last season’s statistics for both players.

Last season, Welbeck scored 6 goals in 24 Premier League appearances with Sunderland. Hernandez, on the other hand, scored 13 goals in 25 domestic league appearances—only 14 of which were starts—with the Red Devils. Does this mean that Hernandez should start ahead of Welbeck on Sunday? Well, the computer seems to think so, but anyone who saw Danny on Monday would probably say “let Danny Boy play.” Last I checked, Sir Alex was watching that match, so I’d expect Welbeck to hold his place this weekend. Besides, scoring for United is a much easier task than scoring for Sunderland, as Danny Welbeck will probably admit right about now (ahem, Berbatov was joint-leading scorer last season).