AccuScore’s Super Computer played out Borussia Dortmund v Hamburg SV in a purely statistical environment for 90 minutes incorporating individual and team statistics from last season. Then, the computer re-performed this process 10,000 times to arrive at probabilities for goal scorers, results, and scores.
Based on last season’s statistics, the computer gives Borussia Dortmund a 78.2% probability of beating Hamburg. This staggering one-sided result is due to Hamburg’s poor away record combined with key departures including shot-stopper Frank Rost and striker Ruud Van Nistelrooy. On Friday, Hamburg’s most likely scorer was Mladen Petric, who scored in 23.7% of simulations. However, he was the 5th most likely scorer in the match.
Dortmund’s most likely scorer was Shinji Kagawa, and the Japanese forward scored in nearly 47% of simulations. Kevin Grosskreutz, Robert Lewandowski, and Ilkay Gundogan were all also more likely to score than anyone on Hamburg. With Dortmund’s home defensive record from last season weighing heavily in the simulation results, Hamburg lost by 2 or more goals in 53% of simulations.
Ultimately, the Super Computer finds value at picking Dortmund to win and considers them the clearly superior team (based on last season's statistics). Looking at Hamburg’s roster, it would be hard to disagree at this point, but a ball has yet to be kicked this season.
Projected Score: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburg SV
Sign up now for our special summer rates and get nearly 1,500 Bundesliga, La Liga, Premier League, Serie A, and Champions League match forecasts and previews.
Click Here for a 3 day trial.
