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By Stephen Oh

Robert Griffin III solidified his status as the number two pick in the draft after an impressive performance at the NFL combine.  Saint Louis will look to get maximum value in a trade for the number two spot, and the three teams rumored to be in the running are Cleveland, Washington and Miami.

Taking into account scouting reports, size, speed, and college performance, AccuScore created a virtual RG3 that on paper closely resembled Michael Vick from the past two seasons in Philadelphia.  We “re-simulated” the 2011 season for Cleveland, Washington and Miami inserting Griffin.  We assumed no serious injuries for any of the teams.

Griffin’s projected statistics varied slightly on each team but his overall average was:

CMP

ATT

CMP%

YARDS

PASSTD

INT

RUSH

RUSHYD

RUSHTD

290

496

58.5%

3472

23

16

90

729

6

CLEVELAND BROWNS
In our re-simulation with Colt McCoy starting all 16 games, the Cleveland Browns averaged 5.3 wins (10,000 season simulations) and only made the playoffs in 2.6 percent of the time.  With Robert Griffin III the Browns showed an impressive improvement highlighted by:

  • 8.2 Wins (+2.9 vs McCoy)
  • Make playoffs 11.4% (+8.8% vs McCoy)

Here’s how the Browns performed on a game-by-game basis with McCoy vs Griffin.

Robert Griffin III vs. Colt McCoy

Robert Griffin makes the Browns instantly competitive but with 3 playoff teams in the division the Browns still only have an 11.4% chance of making the playoffs.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
In our re-simulation the Redskins with Rex Grossman starting all 16 games averaged just 4.6 Wins per season simulation and they only made the playoffs in 6.4% of simulations.  The Redskins showed a comparable improvement with Griffin that Cleveland showed.

The Redskins season wins improved to 7.3 (+2.7 vs Grossman) which is slightly less than the +2.9 the Browns improved by.  Even though the NFC East has the Super Bowl champs the division was not as tough as the AFC North.  As a result, the Redskins’ chances of making the playoffs improves to 17.8% (+16.5% vs Grossman) which is considerably more the +8.8% that Cleveland improved by.

On a game-by-game basis, Griffin improved the Redskins’ win percentage by +16.5 percentage points (16.4% vs NFC East, +16.7% vs non-divisional opponents).

Robert Griffin III vs. Rex Grossman

MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Dolphins had a miserable start to the 2011 season (0-7) but with Matt Moore at QB the Dolphins rallied to finish 6-10.  In our re-simulation the Dolphins won 7.3 games per season simulation and had a 20.8% chance of making the playoffs.

The Patriots dominated the division but with Robert Griffin in Miami they have legitimate competition for the AFC East.  The Dolphins with Griffin improved:

  • 10.2 Wins (+2.9 vs Moore)
  • Playoffs 72.0% (+51.2% vs Moore)
  • Win Division 25.1% (+21.7% vs Moore)

One interesting fact coming out of the game-by-game analysis is on a percentage point improvement the Dolphins only improved by +8% and +16% in their two games vs New England.  In simulations the Dolphins are a likely playoff team in the AFC but the Patriots would still be the heavy favorite to win the division.

Robert Griffin III vs. Matt Moore

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