by Aaron Fischman
Follow @aaronhartf on Twitter

To see the AccuScore Super Computer’s Picks against the spread and on Totals, visit the NFL Expert Picks Page.

Sunday Night Football: Chicago vs Houston

Football fans are in for a treat this Sunday night as two 7-1 teams will battle it out on the aptly named Soldier Field. Interestingly enough, each team’s only loss came against the Packers, who won 23-10 and 42-24 against the Bears and Texans respectively.

The Bear defense has limited opponents to 15.0 points per game, good for second in the league behind only the 49ers. Although San Francisco has only surrendered 12.9 points per game, the Bears have produced a whopping 28 takeaways in eight games. By contrast, the 49ers have just 12 takeaways. These takeaways have resulted in eight defensive touchdowns for the Bears. To put that into better perspective, the Lions led the NFL with seven touchdowns over the course of the entire 2011 season. The Bears are on pace for 16 defensive touchdowns this season though I am expecting closer to 12 or 13, which would still be an amazing total.

All those takeaways and defensive touchdowns have effectively fueled the Chicago offense, which ranks third in points scored if we include the eight defensive touchdowns. Even when the Bears “merely” force a change of possession, it often results in strong starting field position for the offense.

This is where things get interesting. The Texans are extremely careful with the ball, having turned the ball over a league-low six times. The Bears have recorded 17 interceptions, but Matt Schaub has thrown only four interceptions this season and two of those came in the Texans’ lone loss.

Both teams boast talented offenses though the Texans are much more balanced. Arian Foster is on pace to easily eclipse the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight year. Although his yards-per-carry average is down to 4.0, he has taken on an increased workload of 24 carries per game. Matt Schaub hasn’t thrown for too many touchdowns (12 thus far), but he has remained healthy and kept turnovers to a minimum. With a strong defense and reliable running game, Schaub has only needed to attempt 249 passes (24th in the NFL). Jay Cutler, who has only attempted 241 passes, is in a similar situation.

According to more than 10,000 simulations, AccuScore forecasts fewer than 193 passing yards for Schaub and a tad over 209 yards for Cutler. Foster and Matt Forte are expected to gain 88.2 and 78.4 yards on the ground respectively. Among backs with more than 100 carries, Forte ranks third in yards-per-carry average, but he places 16th in rushing yards because back-up Michael Bush gets a fair amount of playing time.

AccuScore is projecting 82.1 receiving yards for Brandon Marshall, but only 36 and 23 yards for Earl Bennett and Devin Hester respectively. This is in line with the Bears’ season-long passing numbers. In fact, 45 percent of Cutler’s passing yards have been recorded on passes directed to Mr. Marshall. Seven of his 12 touchdowns have also gone to the seventh-year pro. Alshon Jeffery ranks second on the team with just 184 receiving yards all season. If the Texans can stop Marshall, they will win, but only the Packers have been able to do that this season.

With regard to turnovers, which statistic will prevail, the 28 Chicago takeaways or the six Houston giveaways? AccuScore projections don’t have the Bears forcing their typical three or four turnovers, but they do expect each team to turn the ball over around 1.5 times. The Bears and Texans are tied for third in the NFL with 25 sacks, but AccuScore projections expect Houston to take down Cutler four times. Schaub is only expected to get sacked one or two times.

Considering how stout each defense is, AccuScore forecasts an approximate 20-18 Chicago win, giving the Bears a 57.4 percent chance of victory. Independently, I will predict a 27-21 Bears victory, but if the Texans remain turnover-free, I think the Texans have a good chance of pulling off the road upset.