Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Tampa Bay vs Carolina: Monday Night Football
Every week's a different beast in the NFL and the defending NFC champs have learned that the hard way so far. At 1-3, the Carolina Panthers hobble into Monday Night Football sitting 2.5 games behind the Atlanta Falcons for the division lead. Carolina is tied with the New Orleans Saints and Monday's opponent - the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bucs have lost three in a row, but that could change this week with Panthers QB Cam Newton out due to concussion protocol.
Carolina - without Cam - is a 5.5-point favorite, with the total set at 45.5. The line opened at -6 for Carolina, with the total coming down from 46.
AccuScore sim data provides even more value on the home side, suggesting the Panthers should be a 10-point favorite. The Panthers cover a 5.5-point spread in over 62 percent of simulations, a four-star hot trend pick.
Betting Trend: Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Panthers.
Betting Trend: Carolina is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after consecutive against the spread (ATS) losses.
The total combined score stays UNDER 45.5 in about 62 percent of simulations, a two-star (out of four) hot trend pick. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 26-16, with Carolina winning by 10 points or more in over 50 percent of their simulated victories.
Betting Trend: The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Carolina's last 16 games vs divisional opponents.
Betting Trend: The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games on the road.
See all NFL Monday Night Football expert picks and forecasts: NFL Expert Picks
What to Watch For:
There's usually no reason to bring his name up, but Carolina backup QB Derek Anderson is more than capable of filling in and getting a win. Anderson actually had his fair share of success against the Atlanta Falcons after coming in for an injured Cam Newton. The offense finally was able to move the ball and there just seemed to be more flow - at least passing an eyeball test. Better yet, Anderson has history playing against Tampa Bay. He filled in for Cam twice in 2014 against Tampa Bay, completing 68 percent of passes in two wins.
