Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter
MNF Week 10: Giants vs. Bengals
Top NFL Trends of the Week
- Against the Spread Picks: 7-6 (+30) season 1830
- Side Value picks: 7-6 (+362) season 1024
The New York Giants don't seem to have much success on Monday Night Football (MNF) in recent history. Heading into this week's matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Giants are 1-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last five MNF contests.
The Giants are slight home dogs at home on the money line, listed at -105 compared to Cincy's -115. The Bengals are slight 1-point favorites in Vegas.
Vegas Odds & Best Bets
Special Membership offer: Join AccuScore now using the code quarters for 25% off a monthly All-Sports premium membership. This special is only available for a short time... Join Today
Whereas Vegas odds give the Giants about a 50-to-51 percent chance of winning, AccuScore simulation data has that between 42-to-43 percent, suggesting even more value on the road favorites.
AccuScore's data has the Bengals listed as 3-point road favorites, compared to the -1 listed in Vegas. The Bengals cover a -1 spread in about 56 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccUScore hot trend.
Whereas Vegas has the total listed at 47, AccuScore sim data has it up at 50, suggesting a pick on the OVER. The total combined score goes OVER 47 in 57.1 percent of simulations, another four-star hot trend.
Betting Trends
— The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Bengals' last 6 games.
— The Bengals are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games on the road.
— The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Bengals' last 7 games when playing the Giants.
— The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Giants' last 6 games at home.
What to Watch For
Despite the simulation data and supporting betting trends, what stands out most about this matchup is the fact that the visiting team has never won the nine previous games in the series. Cincy played in this stadium to open the season, a 23-22 victory over the NY Jets.
Bengals QB Andy Dalton loves playing in November. His .650 career winning percentage in November is his second-best month.He's projected to finish Monday night's matchup with 245 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and a passer rating of 98.7.
The Bengals' success - at least on offense - is largely dependant on TE Tyler Eifert's availability and production. The Bengals offense's red-zone touchdown percentage in the first six games of the season without Eifer was 42.1%; in two games since his return, that percentage has almost doubled (83%). Eifert is projected to finish with 33 receiving yards on 2 receptions. He averages 0.4 TDs per sim, second on the team to WR A.J. Green's 0.6 TDs per sim average.
