Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL MNF: Raiders vs Texans From Mexico City
Week 11 culminates with the NFL featuring the Oakland Raiders and Houston Texans facing off at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Oakland heads into the matchup looking like contenders against a Texans squad relying on a defense that's keeping pace even without JJ Watt.
Oakland is a 6-point favorite, listed at -250 odds on the money line. Houston's getting +210 with the total set at 45.
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Best Bet(s)
In terms of value picks, there's not a whole lot on the total. Both Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data have the total listed at 45.
The sim data does have the Raiders as 4-point favorites, favoring them slightly less compared to Vegas odds.
Houston covers the 6-point spread in about 52 percent of simulations, a two-star (out of four) hot trend.
Betting Trends
- The Texans are 9-4 straight up (SU) in their last 13 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Texans' last six games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Raiders' last six games.
- The Texans are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games when playing the Raiders.
- The Texans are 6-3 SU in their last nine games when playing the Raiders.
What to Watch For
Last time out, prior to the bye week, Oakland finished their 30-20 win over Denver with 218 yards on the ground. It's this ability to run for a pass-focused offense that's made the Raiders' offense a complex unit to contain.
Keep an eye on RB Latavius Murray's production, especially in the first half. He averages 0.6 TDs per sim to go along with 94 rushing yards on 17 carries; an above-average performance from him heavily pushes the win probability towards Oakland's favor.
Defensively, Oakland will focus on containing RB Lamar Miller and more-than-likely double teaming DeAndre Hopkins. Miller - like Murray - averages 0.6 TDs per sim, projecting to finish with 79 yards on 14 carries. DeAndre Hopkins averages 102 yards on 8 receptions in simulations, but finds the end zone less frequently - 0.5 TDs per sim - than Miller.
