By Jonathan Lee and Bart Lopez
College picks are +9 for the season with a solid 25-16-3 record. Jon and Bart have eight expert picks available for Week 9.
JON’S COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS
Houston (-28) vs. Rice – Thursday Night
Houston is number one in total offense and scoring average (49.3 per game). Rice has yet to come within 18 points of Houston’s average (31 vs. Baylor) in any game this year, and averages just 22.3 points. Rice has lost its four road games by 19.5 points on average, and has the 115th ranked defense in the country allowing 472 yards a game. With this game on primetime on Thursday night, it represents a chance for Houston to elevate its standing in the mind of voters which means style points will count. Expect the Cougars to push for every single yard and score to make this game look good to voters.
TCU vs. BYU OVER 56 Points
The computer sim line is 58 points. This game trends extremely well with the computers as the combined totals record with these two teams is 11-2, a success rate of 84.6 percent. Both quarterbacks are mobile which should help create more broken plays, and more chances to keep offensive drives alive. More plays equals more points. TCU is a pretty sizable favorite so what I expect is for the Frogs to get up early and then allow BYU to score the difference after taking the foot off the pedal. If the game remains close it is likely to turn into a shootout. Either scenario benefits the Over.
Air Force vs. New Mexico UNDER 64 Points
These two teams have lost a combined 10 games in a row so neither is very good. Between the two they average 49.4 points per game. The simulation line is just 57 points. AccuScore’s record picking totals for these two teams is 6-4 combined. Air Force runs a ball control offense so even if it scores plenty of points it will kill plenty of time off the clock doing so. Even if the Falcons score 40, New Mexico probably doesn’t have the talent to score 24 points itself.
Stanford (-7.5) at USC
Four years ago Stanford entered the Coliseum as 41 point underdogs and won. Now the betting line has flipped an incredible seven touchdowns with Stanford the team near the top of the polls. USC has played well in recent weeks, but those games were against clearly flawed teams like Cal and Arizona. Stanford is probably the most balanced team in the country with a NFL-caliber offensive line. That is the advantage that should allow Stanford to cover this spread by allowing Andrew Luck time to operate and control the clock. Luck will not make mistakes like Zach Maynard or Dayne Crist to give away points to USC. Stanford has methodically worn down teams all year, and I think that will happen once again against the Trojans who don’t have a lot of quality depth because of their roster limits.
Cal (-4.5) at UCLA
The Bears are flawed, but the defense is very good. UCLA is a mess, and will be missing four wide receivers due to suspension and are down two offensive linemen as well. Points will be hard to come by for the Bruins, and as long as Cal doesn’t turn the ball over it should be able to control the game. Turnovers were a problem for Cal against USC, but on the season the Bears have been good ranking 3rd in the Pac-12 in turnover margin. If Cal takes care of the ball as it has for the most part all year, it should win fairly easily.
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BART’S COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS
Texas Tech (-14.5) vs. Iowa State
My first pick of the week is for Texas Tech to cover the spread at home against Iowa State. This pick is a four star pick and AccuScore hot trend. The Red Raiders are a top ranked offense ranked fifth in total yards and third in passing yards. Iowa State has a large negative average point differential on the season, at -12.6, and gives up nearly 36 points per game. I think the Texas Tech offense will be dominant enough to ensure the spread is covered. In addition, Texas Tech is coming off a big win on the road against Oklahoma, which should give them more than enough momentum heading into Saturday’s game.
Navy (+20.5) at Notre Dame
My second pick of the day is for Navy to keep the game close on the road at Notre Dame. This pick has an AccuScore probability of 60.1 percent, three stars, and is an AccuScore hot trend. Notre Dame is coming of a 14 point lost to USC at home. The Fighting Irish offense, led by quarterback Tommy Rees, averages 30.1 points per game. The Navy defense isn’t very good, giving up 30.3 points per game, but I think it is good enough to prevent a 20 point rout. In addition, the Midshipmen running game, ranked third in rushing yards, should have some success and prevent the Notre Dame offense from being on the field long enough to rack up the score.
Oklahoma at Kansas State OVER 58.5
My final pick is over 58.5 points. This pick gets four stars and is an AccuScore hot trend. Both of these teams are capable of putting up a lot of points. Oklahoma and Kansas State average 44.3 and 33.6 points per game respectively. The issue here is whether the two defenses, which give up around 19 points per game, will be able to slow down the offenses. Both defenses though are susceptible to giving up a lot of points, and Oklahoma showed some real issues last week in the 38-41 loss to Texas Tech. I’m expecting the offenses to dominate this game, which matches the AccuScore prediction of the combined score being around 64 points.
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