Written by Jon Lee

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USC & Oregon are Preseason Pac 12 Picks

This year’s conference race really comes down to Southern Cal and Oregon and everybody else. The Trojans and Ducks both average 7.5 conference wins in simulations with USC having a small advantage in percentage because the November 3 regular season match-up will be at the Coliseum. Expect there to be a re-match between the two in the Pac-12 championship game.

The Trojans should have one of the most electrifying offenses in the country led by quarterback Matt Barkley. He has an embarrassment of riches around him at the skill positions with receivers Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, and running backs Curtis McNeal and Penn State transfer Silas Redd. The defense has great playmakers in the back seven as well. The real Achilles heel for this team is depth so injuries will be key.

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The Ducks should be able to match the offensive firepower in Los Angeles no matter if Marcus Mariota or Bryan Bennett line up at quarterback. Both are better runners than the departed Darron Thomas, and have gotten rave reviews from the coaching staff. Although record-settting running back LaMichael James is gone, Kenjon Barner is more than capable of handling the load and he is supported by DeAnthony Thomas. Thomas will both run and catch the ball, and might be the most lethal quickstrike threat in the nation. The defense is also reportedly one of the best ever under Chip Kelly with speed and experience at all levels.

The next two best teams are both from the North in Stanford and Washington. The Huskies also feature a great offense, but to say the defense was a mess in 2011 would be too kind. Stanford will suffer an immeasurable drop-off at quarterback without Andrew Luck, but the program is too well-coached and stocked with talent to fall out of bowl contention.

Utah is getting plenty of mention as a top-25 preseason team, but simulations project something closer to a .500 season. Running back John White is terrific, but the rest of the conference is improving and the Utes did lose to bottom-feeding Colorado to end the year despite the South title being on the line. UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, and Arizona State all break in new coaches with new schemes so it wouldn’t be a shock for one or two to compete for a bowl game and really improve as the season progresses.

Colorado is easily projected as the last team in the league with the lowest talent level and furthest to go in terms of contention in a deep football league.