Written by Max Meyer

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Four Things to Know: Michigan State vs Ohio State

1. The rushing attacks will be electric

While both teams aren't elite running teams (Ohio State is 24th in rushing yards per game, Michigan State is 55th), they each have one great rusher. Michigan State running back Le'Veon Bell is third in the nation with 153 rushing yards per game. Bell had a career high 253 rushing yards last week against Eastern Michigan. However, if he wants to vault himself into the Heisman race, he will need a big game against Ohio State. In Michigan State's loss to Notre Dame, Bell had a lackluster 77 yards. While he did have a monster performance against Boise State in the Spartan's first game, he will need prove himself in Big 10 play. AccuScore simulations think Bell will have a good game projecting Bell to have over 100 yards rushing with a five yards per carry average. Michigan State will need solid production from Bell to win, especially since they've won 20 of their past 21 games when they've outrushed an opponent.

On the other side, it's Ohio State's quarterback is their best rushing threat. Heisman candidate Braxton Miller already has seven rushing touchdowns, and he's averaging 110 rushing yards per game, which ranks 16th in the nation. Miller has been efficient with his attempts averaging 6.6 yards per carry. This is important for Ohio State's offense because Miller has only run the ball more than 17 times once this year so the Buckeyes need Miller to do more with less. AccuScore simulations actually project Miller to have his worst rushing game of the season with 65 rushing yards for an average of 4.3 yards per carry. Even though he's facing a great defense, Miller will need to be effective on the ground to get a win.

2. Michigan State has the best defense in the Big Ten

The biggest reason why Michigan State snapped its seven-game losing streak to Ohio State last season was because of its defense. The Spartans stunned the Buckeyes at the Horseshoe 10-7 last year, and their defense this season is allowing a measly 11.8 points per game. Besides having the top scoring defense in the conference, Michigan State also has the top total defense, rushing defense and pass efficiency defense. Their ability to stop both the run and the pass is the perfect recipe to shut down Miller.

The Spartans brought back eight starters on defense, and four of the players were named on the Bednarik Award Watch List. Considering they were tied with Alabama and LSU for most players named on the list, that is extremely impressive. One of those players listed and arguably the best performer is middle linebacker Max Bullough. The third generation Spartan has 26 tackles thus far, 3.5 of them for a loss.

This defense is very good at tackling and limiting yards, but they don't have a dominant pass rush. They only have three sacks in four games. The lack of a pass rush has led to very few turnovers created. Six turnovers forced over four games is a disappointing number for an elite defense. AccuScore simulations do predict that Michigan State's pass rush will have a better day with 1.6 sacks. The Spartans cannot give Miller too much time in the pocket, or else he will burn them with him arm or his legs.

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3. Time of possession is key

Urban Meyer runs an up-tempo offensive scheme, but he may want to slow down Miller and the rest of the offense on Saturday. Michigan State is ranked sixth nationally in time of possession because of how effectively they run the ball. Spartans' coach Mark Dantonio is a big believer that having the ball longer than your opponents correlates with winning. Under Dantonio, Michigan State has won 32 out of 36 games when they win the time of possession battle.

Expect Ohio State to counter this by running the ball more often. AccuScore sims expect another Buckeye besides Miller to have a good day on the ground. Running back Jordan Hall had rushed for 192 yards over the past two weeks, and he projects for 60 yards with a similar number of carries as Miller. If Ohio State can get these two guys to run the ball well, they can turn Michigan State's time of possession strategy upside down.

4. Will Ohio State's pass rush affect Spartan quarterback Andrew Maxwell?

Ohio State already has 10 sacks in four games this season. The most amazing part about that is that 10 different players have recorded those sacks. This shows the amount of depth the Buckeyes have in terms of pass rushers. They also have seven interceptions this season. Clearly, the defense has shown that they can put pressure on a quarterback.

This prospect of the Buckeye defense should not make Maxwell comfortable heading into Saturday. After fan favorite Kirk Cousins got drafted, Maxwell was awarded the starting job. The Michigan State faithful has seen that he nowhere near the quarterback Cousins was at this point in the season. He is completing less than 60 percent of his passes, and he has the same number of interceptions (three) as he does touchdowns.

The key for Ohio State is to shut down Bell early and force Michigan State into third and long situations. In third down passing situations of seven yards or longer, Maxwell has only completed 36 percent of his passes (9 of 26). Only two of those throws have gone for a first down. Ohio State will be able to send more people to blitz Maxwell in those situations, which will lead to turnovers.

The Prediction:

Michigan State is currently favored by three points over Ohio State thanks to home field advantage. AccuScore simulations actually project Ohio State to win 52.1 percent of the time, and Michigan State to cover the spread only 39.7 percent of the time.

I expect this to be a close game. Since 2010 Michigan State is 7-0 against the spread when the line is three points or fewer. The Spartans are also 10-1 in games decided by 10 points or fewer over the past three seasons.

Michigan State simply has the better defense, and I think Bell will be able to have a good rushing day against the Buckeyes. I also think that Michigan State is more prepared for this game in terms of their schedule. Having already faced Boise State and Notre Dame, the Spartans have the experience of playing in big games this season. They also have more to play for since Ohio State is ineligible to play in a bowl this season.

#20 Michigan State 23, #14 Ohio State 14