Written by Jon Lee

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Analyst’s College Football Picks: Week 5

FREE Pick: ASU +1 at California

This line has continually dropped since opening at +2, and may be a pick’em depending on the oddsmaker. There is good reason for this. Cal seems like it should be a good team. Jeff Tedford is allegedly a good coach. But anybody who has watched the Bears over the past five seasons knows that those two statements are false. Cal has already lost at home this season, and seems to fare worse against teams that play true spread offenses, particularly ones with running quarterbacks. ASU is significantly improved from last season and runs a spread with not only one, but two running quarterbacks with Taylor Kelly and Michael Eubank. Todd Graham has figured out that coaches are supposed to use their best players with newcomers D.J. Foster and Marion Grice leading the team in rushing, and Eubank playing in specific packages. Tedford has done the opposite limiting his most explosive weapon, Brendan Bigelow, to just 10 carries in four games. Bigelow has averaged 20.6 yards per carry in his restricted workload. AccuScore simulations have ASU winning outright 54 percent of the time by an average margin of 2.4 points, which matches what I have seen on the field this year. The Sun Devils are the objectively better team, and if they were the home team I would set this line at six or more.

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