By Jonathan Lee and Bart Lopez

The AccuScore college football picks returned to profitability in a big way last week with a 5-1 record.  Jon and Bart return with seven more expert picks for Week 8 of college football action.

West Virginia (-13.5) at Syracuse
The Mountaineers have easily the best offense in the Big East as well as the best defense.  Syracuse is decidedly average on both sides of the ball, and this conference makes them worse than mediocre among BCS teams.  Syracuse may be 4-2, but the results of the past 3 weeks don’t inspire confidence: overtime win over Toledo, a double overtime loss to Rutgers, and a 3-point win at Tulane.  West Virginia meanwhile has blitzed every time it has played except LSU.  The Mountaineers are winning by an average of 17.3 points in simulations, and personally I expect that margin to be even bigger.

Oklahoma State (-6.5) at Missouri
The Cowboys are 4th in the initial BCS standings, and appear to control their own destiny: win out and reach the championship game.  That means each game the team will be focused and motivated to win with style.  The average computer line for this game is OK State by 8, and the game is also a 4-star pick.  The combined AccuScore record for games involving these two teams is 9-2.

Wake Forest (-3) at Duke
Two weeks ago Wake Forest beat Florida State at home by 5 points.  Last week Duke lost to Florida State by 25 points at home.  So why is this line so low?  There’s usually a reason for baffling betting lines like this, but I’m still going to take Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are still one of the better teams in the ACC behind the strength of their passing offense and a solid defense.  Duke is a nice passing team, but with a terrible defense.  I’m going against the computer in this case which actually has Duke slightly favored, but the pick is just one-star so I feel ok doing it.

Wisconsin (-8.5) at Michigan State
This is a match-up between two of the most statistically dominant defenses in the country.  The difference is that Wisconsin has an elite offense with playmakers in the backfield as well as elite special teams.  Michigan State is decidedly mediocre on offense and has very poor special teams play.  Both teams have benefitted statistically from soft schedules, but I feel much more confident in Wisconsin executing against better competition because of their elite talent on offense.  The Spartans don’t appear to be built to score enough points to keep up with Wisconsin.  I expect a close first half with the Badgers breaking the game open in the second.

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BART’S PICKS

Kansas State (-10.5) at Kansas
My first pick this week is for Kansas State to cover the spread on the road against Kansas. This pick gets four stars and is an AccuScore hot trend. The last time these two teams met, Kansas was absolutely embarrassed at home. Kansas State won 59-7 in a game that had them favored by only three points. Kansas does a good job of putting points on the board, scoring 31.7 points per game, but is awful defensively. The Jayhawks give up 49 points per game compared to Kansas State which hold opponents to 19.5 points per game. The game appears too lopsided to not choose Kansas State to cover.

NC State (+5.5) at Virginia
My second pick is for NC State to keep the game close on the road at Virginia. These two teams haven’t met since 2007, so recent history won’t be of any use. Virginia is coming off a big 24-21 upset over Georgia Tech, which I think leaves them open for a letdown. Virginia quarterback Michael Rocco hasn’t played that well, throwing eight interceptions with just three touchdowns. Turnovers will determine this game as NC State forces a lot of turnovers with 18 for the season. NC State’s defense isn’t great overall, but with some forced turnovers it should, at least, keep the game close.

Penn State at Northwestern UNDER 47.5
This is my last pick of the week, for the combined final score to fall below 47.5 points. I’m disagreeing with AccuScore on this one because of Penn State’s defense and Northwestern’s quarterback Dan Persa’s limited mobility.  First, the Nittany Lions are ranked in the top ten in the country in several defensive categories. They give up only 11.6 points and 264.1 yards per game. Second, Dan Persa has lost a lot of mobility after returning from an Achilles injury. In the three games he has played this season he hasn’t gone one game with positive rushing yardage. Persa is limited to being a passer, which makes the Northwestern offense too one-dimensional to beat the tough Penn State defense. In addition, Penn State doesn’t score a lot, at 21.7 points per game.

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