By Jonathan Lee and Bart Lopez

The winning streak for college picks was broken last week, but for the year they are still profitable with a 17-11-3 record.

 

JON’S EXPERT PICKS

LSU -17 at Tennessee
The Tigers have one of the best defenses in the country, and will be going up against Matt Simms with the injury to Tyler Bray.  Bray is by far the best player for Tennessee, and the driver behind the offense for the Vols.  Without him expect LSU to be able to key on Tauren Poole and force some turnovers.  Simms was terrible in eight games as a starter last season leading Tennessee to a 2-6 record.  He especially struggled against top-notch competition which LSU clearly is.  LSU was favored by 14.5 last week against Florida at home, and is only 2.5 points worse this week on the road.  Florida is significantly more talented than Tennessee, and shouldn’t be given basically equal respect by bettors even with an inexperienced freshman at quarterback.

Oklahoma State (-7.5) at Texas
Texas was exposed last week by Oklahoma in every way imaginable.  While the Longhorns were a bit unlucky to turn the ball over five times, both of their own touchdowns were slightly lucky coming off a kickoff return and a late score when trailing by 45.  They were beset by pressure from Oklahoma’s line which could be reproduced this week by the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State gets nearly three sacks per game, and 6.6 tackles for loss.  It also has the third best turnover margin in the nation.  The biggest advantage for the Cowboys is the spread passing game which can simulate how Oklahoma cut up the Longhorns.  Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon should have a big day against the Texas defense.

Memphis vs. East Carolina OVER 56 Points
While both teams have poor offenses, both teams have even worse defenses.  The two rank 115th and 116th nationally in scoring defense allowing over 36.6 points per game.  The AccuScore sim line for this game is 61 points giving you a 5 point cushion.  The over occurs in nearly 60 percent of simulations.  This is a 3-star AccuScore pick as well.

 

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BART’S EXPERT PICKS

New Mexico State (+1) vs. Idaho
My first pick this week is for New Mexico State to beat Idaho on Saturday. This is a four star AccuScore pick with New Mexico State having a 62.3% chance of winning the game. This matchup between two bad teams will come down to home field advantage. On the road this year Idaho is 0-2 and averages only 13.5 points per game while giving up 29.0 points. New Mexico State isn’t much better at home, surrendering 30.0 points per game but scoring 17.0. I’m expecting Idaho’s offense to falter and for New Mexico State to edge out a win.

Georgia at Vanderbilt OVER 41.5
The next pick is OVER for the Georgia at Vanderbilt game. This game has a 59.8% chance of ending up with a final combined score of over 41.5. In fact, we predict the combined final score will be around 46 points, which gives a decent cushion on the line. Georgia and Vanderbilt on average score 32.2 and 20.4 points per game respectively. The last two times these teams met the combined final scores were 43 and 44 points in 2010 and 2009. The line is set pretty low this week at 41.5, which leads me to believe that these two teams should clear that total.

Clemson (-7.5) at Maryland
My final pick is for Clemson to win by at least 7.5 on the road against Maryland. The Tigers have a 60.1% chance of covering the spread and are forecasted to win the game by around 12 points. This biggest question mark coming into this game was quarterback Tajh Boyd. He injured his hip in the third quarter against Boston College. The offense relies on his play, and if were unable to play or was seriously hampered in some way I wouldn’t be making this pick. However, he appears to be ok after getting back to practicing very quickly after the injury. With Boyd good to go, Clemson should have the firepower to win and cover the spread at Maryland.

Follow Jon on Twitter @thejonlee
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