By Jonathan Lee and Bart Lopez
College picks are on fire right now – 4-1 last week and 7-2 over the last 2 weeks.
JON’S PICKS
Texas Tech (-17) vs. Nevada
The Wolfpack got lit up like a Christmas tree by Oregon with most of that damage coming through the air and not on the ground like you would expect. That bodes very poorly for this game as Texas Tech is still one of the most prolific passing attacks going in college football. The Red Raiders have scoring 109 points through 2 games, and are the 3rd ranked passing team in the NCAA. Quarterback Seth Doege is also super accurate completing 40 of 44 passes last week setting a national record in the process. Nevada is still a great running team, but a poor defensive team. Yes the defensive numbers are skewed because of the Oregon game, but Texas Tech is similarly high-powered at least through the air. Nevada hasn’t beaten a BCS team on the road since 2003 losing 5 straight times by an average of 33 points. The AccuScore sim line is 23.3 points with a 60 percent probability of covering the spread.
Florida International vs. Louisiana-Lafayette OVER 51 Points
Here is my computer play of the week as it is a 4-star pick. The average sim line is 54 points giving you a field goal cushion over the line. AccuScore is 4-1 this season picking totals in games involving either team so far this season. FIU features T.Y. Hilton, one of the most electric players in the nation on any team. His speed going up against a poor defense like Lafayette’s should translate into some big plays.
Notre Dame (-6.5) at Pittsburgh
This is my wild pick this week as the Irish obviously are hard to bet on because of the first two games of the season. In reality though, Notre Dame was better in both games, but lost because of crazy mistakes and turnovers. Now you might believe that those happened because it is Notre Dame, and that happens to them but I still see a quality team. The defense is stout (although the stats are skewed from that 4th quarter vs. Michigan) and Tommy Rees has proven to be an effective game manager. Pittsburgh meanwhile has played poorly against very poor competition (Buffalo, Maine, Iowa), and has Tino Sunseri at quarterback. The only thing Sunseri has proven in his 1+ season as the starter is that he is not a BCS-caliber player. Pitt has also allowed the most sacks in the FBS, again against some poor competition. Even though this goes against the computer, I like Notre Dame as long as Denard Robinson doesn’t get to suit up for the final quarter.
Sign up for Full Access to all of AccuScore's Expert Picks and Award-winning Game forecasts
FREE for a limited time
BART’S PICKS
Eastern Michigan (+28) at Penn State
This pick is a four star advisor’s pick and AccuScore hot trend. I’m going with Eastern Michigan keeping the game closer than 28 points for a couple of reasons. First, Penn State has not done a great job of putting points on the board. In the last game where it was a heavy favorite (-38), Penn State failed to cover the spread against Indiana State. Second, Eastern Michigan, as a heavy underdog last week against Michigan (28.5), lost by 28 points, less than the spread. With those two points in mind, I don’t think Penn State will be able to cover the spread.
UCLA (+5) at Oregon State
My second pick is another AccuScore hot trend. This game is tricky because even though Oregon State has not played well, they had a bye week to rest and prepare getting its two best players back from injury (James Rodgers and Joe Halahuni). In addition, UCLA has not done well against the spread recently and didn’t look good against Texas. However, Richard Brehaut is starting at quarterback this week after Kevin Prince’s awful performance the week before. UCLA should be able, at the very least, to keep the game close.
Kansas State at Miami OVER 47.5 Points
My last pick is an Over pick for the Kansas State at Miami game. The game is forecasted to be a high scoring affair with the Hurricanes beating the Wildcats 30.6 to 22.4. Kansas State has held its opponents to just seven points on the season, but it hasn’t faced any real competition as of yet. Both teams excel in the running game thanks to Kansas State’s Collin Klein and Bryce Brown, and Miami’s Lamar Miller and Mike James. Look for both offenses to be clicking on Saturday.
Follow Jon on Twitter @thejonlee
Follow Bart on Twitter @bartlopez1216
Stay up to date with AccuScore on Twitter as well @AccuScore
Go to the NCAAF page for game forecasts and previews for every game of the college football season
