Written by Max Meyer
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Three Things to Know : LSU vs Florida
1. LSU is going to run the football early and often
In LSU’s first five games, the Tigers have averaged 230 yards rushing with 16 touchdowns. Despite losing their best running back Alfred Blue to injury, the Tigers have thrived on the ground because of their three-headed monster in the backfield. The combined efforts of Spencer Ware, Kenny Hilliard, and Michael Ford are the biggest reason why LSU won their first five games. AccuScore projects the trio to gain a combined 141 rushing yards with Ware having the most with 55. All three running backs are also projected to average at least 4.3 yards per carry.
I personally think that Hilliard will have the best game out of the three. He currently leads LSU in rushing with 368 yards. Hilliard has struggled in LSU’s past two games, but he should be efficient against Florida’s mediocre run defense. Running the football will be a huge key this game especially since LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger has struggled so far this season.
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2. Florida QB Jeff Driskel needs to be a playmaker
LSU’s defense will be focused on stopping Florida running back Mike Gillislee so it will be up to the Driskel to move the ball on LSU. The sophomore will need to use his arm and his legs effectively to beat the Tigers’ defense. Florida’s offense has been steady so far because Driskel has limited his turnovers. Florida however, needs Driskel to step up and be more than a game manager at quarterback.
Driskel has completed almost 70 percent of his passes this season, and is averaging 8.8 yards per completion. AccuScore sims forecast him to have a decent game through the air with a 124 passer rating. Last week, LSU got killed when Towson quarterback Grant Enders ran the option. He rushed the ball 12 times for 86 yards, and kept the aggressive LSU defense off-balance. Florida will need to run a similar game plan to make sure that LSU doesn’t force them to be one dimensional on offense.
3. How Will Florida’s Offensive Line Hold Up?
Last season the Gators’ offensive line gave up 23 sacks, and did not create many holes for the running game. While the run blocking has dramatically improved, Driskel has already been sacked 12 times. Florida will have a battle in the trenches Saturday with LSU’s defensive line.
LSU has two of the top pass rushers in the country in Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo. They also have two huge run stuffers in Bennie Logan and Anthony Johnson. These four defensive linemen have wreaked havoc on opposing offenses averaging over two sacks per game. The pressure they’ve created has led to 12 LSU takeaways as well.
I believe that Florida’s offensive line versus LSU’s defensive line is the key matchup of the game, and whoever has the edge in the trenches will win it.
Prediction
LSU is currently a 2.5 point favorite. AccuScore projects LSU to win the game 63.8 percent of the time and to cover the spread at a 59 percent clip. However, I simply think Florida has too many things going for them this game. They have the better quarterback and the game is being played at The Swamp, one of the best home-field advantages in college football. Coming off a bye week, Florida coach Will Muschamp will have had plenty of time to prepare. LSU has struggled against Auburn and Towson in their past two games, teams that are significantly worse than Florida. Florida has not lost three straight to LSU since the late 1970’s, and with last season’s 41-11 loss on their mind, the Gators will get their revenge.
#10 Florida 17, #4 LSU 12
