Written by Jon Lee
Follow @thejonlee

Wisconsin is unsettled at quarterback without Russell Wilson, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem because of running back Montee Ball. Last year he rushed for almost 2,000 yards and scored an incredible 33 touchdowns. With the problems at Penn State and Ohio State (both ineligible for postseason play) the Badgers are the runaway favorite in the Leaders division.

The Badgers are also the overall favorite projected to win the conference averaging about half a win more than their closest competitors. They do travel to Nebraska at the end of September, but the non-conference schedule is soft and the Michigan State game is at Madison. Ohio State actually has the second best chance of finishing with the league’s best record, but would be for naught until the 2013 season.

Join AccuScore now using the coupon code '75Ann' and get $75 OFF an All-Access All-Sports membership. Membership will give you Access to AccuSore's College Football Picks analysis, trends, and everything you need to crush the book. Just click 'JOIN NOW' on the top right of your screen.

Michigan and Michigan State should once again be competing in the Legends division for a spot in the Big 10 championship game. Last year the Spartans came out on top, but now they must replace quarterback Kirk Cousins and have to travel to Ann Arbor and Madison in consecutive weeks in October. They have a 13 percent chance at the league’s best record, but still might be able to challenge for a 10 win season if they can start the season with a win over Boise State.

The Wolverines are riding high after a BCS appearance last year, but will find out immediately how they stack up on September 1 when they play Alabama. With the Legends division race projected to be so close, the season-ending game at Ohio State will take on even greater importance in what essentially will the bowl game (and entire season) for the Buckeyes. Michigan does average the most conference wins in nearly 20 percent of AccuScore simulations.

Nebraska is fifth in our projections, but really doesn’t figure to be a major factor for best in the conference at this point. Bo Pellini has lost exactly four games in each of his four seasons in Lincoln. Even worse, after October over the last two season the Cornhuskers have gone just 5-6 including bowl games. Iowa is a similar longshot having to play on the road against both Michigan and Michigan State before ending the year against the Huskers.

Penn State finishing with the best record in even 2.8 percent of simulations shows there is still some talent left in Happy Valley, but it would be easy for the program to go in the tank on the field given the current situation. The other five teams in the Big 10 – Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Indiana, and Purdue – have less than a two percent probability combined of finishing with the best record in the league.