By Jonathan Lee
American League
It only took about half the season, but the American League East standings have started to turn right side up. The Yankees are well out in front of the pack 18 games above .500 and nearly 93 percent likely to make the playoffs. They are not the story however. The Red Sox were expected to challenge New York this season, but until the past couple of weeks they were just trying to escape last place.
Boston went just 4-3 this past week, but made a massive leap up the projected standings with better overall play and Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Baltimore all coming back to the pack. Those three teams went a combined 5-15 over the last week, and were the three biggest losers in the projections. The Red Sox meanwhile have seemed to have patched together a pitching rotation with the starters allowing just 2.6 runs per game over the last 7 contests.
More help should be on the way soonfor Boston after the All-Star break with both Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford currently on rehab assignments. Both outfielders are forecasted by AccuScore to be significant upgrades over the likes of Daniel Nava, Scott Podsednik, and Ryan Kalish. In fact Ellsbury projects to be Boston's second best hitter behind David Ortiz over the 2nd half of the season. Rookie third baseman Will Middlebrooks is also projected to continue to thrive as a regular after the trade of Kevin Youkilis to Chicago.
| American League |
Weekly Review |
Playoff |
% Chance |
| Team |
25-Jun |
1-Jul |
% Diff |
Win Div |
| Boston Red Sox |
36.7% |
66.4% |
29.8% |
21.2% |
| Los Angeles Angels |
85.0% |
93.4% |
8.4% |
23.2% |
| New York Yankees |
90.2% |
92.9% |
2.7% |
74.6% |
| Detroit Tigers |
57.5% |
59.7% |
2.2% |
50.2% |
| Texas Rangers |
98.4% |
99.4% |
1.0% |
76.8% |
| Kansas City Royals |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Seattle Mariners |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Minnesota Twins |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Cleveland Indians |
1.1% |
0.7% |
-0.5% |
0.5% |
| Oakland Athletics |
1.5% |
0.4% |
-1.2% |
0.0% |
| Chicago White Sox |
63.7% |
58.7% |
-4.9% |
49.3% |
| Toronto Blue Jays |
7.9% |
2.0% |
-5.9% |
0.3% |
| Baltimore Orioles |
22.3% |
11.8% |
-10.5% |
1.7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays |
34.7% |
14.0% |
-20.7% |
2.2% |
National League
The Giants have not only caught the Dodgers in the standings, but also slingshot past their rivals into first place in the National League West. Their success has plenty to do with some unexpected contributors on offense, but also a complete collapse by L.A.
Melky Cabrera earned his first All-Star selection by putting up triple-slash number significantly higher than his career averages. AccuScore project him to fall back to Earth in the second half, but still be very productive with a .308/.352/.455 line. Catcher Buster Posey also earned his first All-Star bid, and the computer forecast shows that he should be able to maintain his current high level of production much better than Cabrera. Pablo Sandoval and Matt Cain were both named to their third All-Star rosters.
San Francisco has seized control of the division with Arizona trailing in second in AccuScore's projections. The Dodgers meanwhile had lost 11 of 12 games before getting a win Sunday, and scored just 15 runs total over that stretch. Los Angeles' offense has fallen apart, and desperately needs Matt Kemp and Mark Ellis to return from the disabled list. Ellis somewhat miraculously might return this week, but Kemp will sit out the All-Star game and return to the field sometime after the break. L.A. has reportedly been active in the trade market, and upgrades could easily be made at first, third, and left field. Getting an above average hitter in any of those three positions would significantly upgrade their playoff projection going forward.
| National League |
Weekly Review |
Playoff |
% Chance |
| Team |
25-Jun |
1-Jul |
% Diff |
Win Div |
| Cincinnati Reds |
49.5% |
70.8% |
21.3% |
32.0% |
| San Francisco Giants |
61.3% |
72.7% |
11.4% |
54.2% |
| Washington Nationals |
88.9% |
96.4% |
7.5% |
92.8% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
27.2% |
34.5% |
7.3% |
8.8% |
| New York Mets |
12.1% |
18.2% |
6.1% |
3.4% |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
11.0% |
14.0% |
3.0% |
2.8% |
| Miami Marlins |
1.5% |
1.7% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
| Chicago Cubs |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| San Diego Padres |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Houston Astros |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies |
0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
| Atlanta Braves |
12.6% |
10.3% |
-2.3% |
1.7% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks |
58.2% |
52.2% |
-6.0% |
30.2% |
| St. Louis Cardinals |
91.9% |
85.2% |
-6.7% |
56.3% |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
29.1% |
10.8% |
-18.4% |
1.9% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers |
54.8% |
31.1% |
-23.7% |
15.4% |
